When Will the Gloves Come Off?

There has been a steady stream of complaints regarding the failure to act on the part of President Obama. I happen to think Barack Obama is a gifted speaker, a brilliant man, and capable of achieving great things for the country he loves. Unlike other statesmen, who dazzle us with personality and panache, President Obama isn’t in it for the glory. He has a job to do, and he has to work with and work around a great many people and forces.  What I have always admired about him as leader is that he carefully considers his actions, regardless of what the press or even the people may say.  Fools rush in.  The world is very fortunate that the man at the helm of the most powerful nation in the world is no fool.

On Wednesday, President Obama delivered his address on US – European relations. It served as an eloquent declaration of action to both Putin and the world.  I was fortunate enough to hear the speech delivered live. If you missed it, here is a link to the full transcript in the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/transcript-president-obama-gives-speech-addressing-europe-russia-on-march-26/2014/03/26/07ae80ae-b503-11e3-b899-20667de76985_story.html.

The speech begins with an easy but relevant history of how the ideals of democracy were born in Europe and carried to America and around the world. Then, the spectre of Putin’s aggression is first addressed.
“But those ideals have also been tested, here in Europe and around the world. Those ideals have often been threatened by an older, more traditional view of power. This alternative vision argues that ordinary men and women are too small-minded to govern their own affairs, that order and progress can only come when individuals surrender their rights to an all-powerful sovereign.”

He goes on to describe the formation of NATO by the alliance of America with Europe “to reject the darker forces of the past and build a new architecture of peace,” and how this stood in stark contrast to the oppressive control wielded by the Soviet Union. A subtle prelude to what he will say regarding Putin.

He then delivers a rousing acknowledgement of how many nations achieved democracy and freedom across the twentieth century, reminding the audience that this generation knows an unprecedented level of freedom and prosperity. Then, he sounds the first warning bell:
“So I come here today to insist that we must never take for granted the progress that has been won here in Europe and advanced around the world, because the contest of ideas continues for your generation. And that’s what’s at stake in Ukraine today. Russia’s leadership is challenging truths that only a few weeks ago seemed self-evident, that in the 21st century, the borders of Europe cannot be redrawn with force, that international law matters, that people and nations can make their own decisions about their future.”

He states directly that the US will not be complacent, that the US believes in the freedom of nations, democracy and human dignity. He reminds the audience of the United Nations, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and international law, and how we must all work together to enforce them.  He accuses Russia of violating international law and stresses the action against the Ukraine must be met with condemnation.  He establishes how Russia has been isolated politically, suspended from the G-8 group of nations, and has been penalized with sanctions. And then how the Ukraine will be offered major financial aid packages and other supports.

The take-away line of the speech was this:  “this is not another cold war that we’re entering into.” President Obama is careful to establish history will not be repeating itself. There won’t be a division of nations along those lines again. And then he draws the line in the sand stating:
“What we will do always is uphold our solemn obligation, our Article 5 duty, to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our allies. And in that promise we will never waver. NATO nations never stand alone.

To back this up, he points out that NATO planes fly the skies in the Baltics and that they have reinforced their presence in Poland. And that they will do more. However he doesn’t say what. Rather, he calls upon NATO members to step and do more.

So what does that mean for Ukraine? I think this statement sums it up:
“Of course Ukraine is not a member of NATO, in part because of its close and complex history with Russia. Nor will Russia be dislodged from Crimea or deterred from further escalation by military force.”

Mr. Obama knows, as we all should, that the crisis in the Ukraine will not be resolved by foreign parties marching in. And, as has become apparent, Putin does not care about sanctions or being part of any international collective other than his own. So, as the speech moves to its end, Mr. Obama tries a different tact, and like a parent to their wayward child, appeals to Russia to rejoin them, that the world is a stronger, better place with Russia working alongside them.  The speech then finishes with more wonderfully worded encouragement and defence of ideals we all hold dear.

If this were a war of words, then hands down the US would have won. Unfortunately, it isn’t, and Putin has not been deterred by what anyone has had to say. For him, this game has only begun, and he will not back down. President Obama should be ready to toss those gloves off and to make good on his commitment to defend fellow NATO nations.

Afghanistan and A Study in Fledgling Democracies

 

Last week, the final members of our valiant Canadian troops left Afghanistan and returned home. Let me take this opportunity to thank each and every one of them, and to wish them all success and happiness in the days ahead. We can never say thank you enough to these men and women, nor fully appreciate the sacrifices they’ve made. And I’m glad they are now safely back on home soil. So what, then, will become of Afghanistan’s fledgling democracy they fought so hard to bring about?

Last Thursday’s attack in Kabul only serves as a grim indicator of how difficult the road ahead will be. The Taliban doesn’t play by anybody’s rules, not even its own. How do you anticipate the moves of an enemy who has no compunctions about killing or human rights? Like dealing with a rabid animal, dealing with the Taliban often leaves only one recourse – kill them before they kill you. I think it’s safe to say there can never be any level of diplomatic negotiating with the Taliban.

As per the Toronto Star, a group of more than 50 reporters based in Afghanistan  effected a fifteen day boycott, refusing to write anything about the Taliban, in protest of this horrific act of violence. Would there be justice? For what it’s worth, the four armed teens who managed to get into a five-star hotel were killed. But only after several hours, and the loss of nine other lives.  While depriving the Taliban of publicity won’t discourage their bloodlust, it was the only immediate course of action that could be taken. And it sent a message to the world: Afghanistan was a long way from being able to effectively police and protect itself.

Modern history is pock-marked with examples of fledgling democracies that have failed. Outside forces come in, repress the insurgents, oust the tyrant, implant new systems that meet with their standards, then leave. Dare we call it a formula for failure? Democracy isn’t something that can just be erected and left standing. It isn’t a scaffolding to hold up the intents and ideals of outside interests. America’s failed efforts in to install democracy in Vietnam following the French withdrawal in 1954 and then the Vietnam war have become the defacto guide on how not to conduct foreign policy. Democracy is a process, born of necessity. It must come from within the people it serves, and override existing fear and corruption to take hold effectively.

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, we can see what happens when the leap to democracy is too soon. These are nations where terrorism and corruption have been endemic.  Iraq.  Tunisia.  Egypt. Libya. Syria. So many people wanted freedom from the existing regime, but their will wasn’t enough to propel them through the pain of change: upheaval, violence, economic downturns. Nor was it enough to go up against the full strength of the existing regime. Or those that followed in its place. Democracy needs time, and it needs to be cultivated carefully.

Which leads us to the crisis in the Ukraine, a fledgling democracy that has succumbed to corruption and weak leadership under Yanukovitch, and is now being preyed upon by the very country that had relinquished it. The fate of Afghanistan does not lie in the hands that once defended it but rather in the hearts and minds of its people; they must wrest control from their oppressors, the Taliban and the warlords, and overcome a culture ruled by terror and corruption.

 

First Crimea, then the World

Well, that’s how the political pundits are making it sound. Personally, I don’t give anyone that much credit, not even Vladimir Putin. Yes, he got Crimea.  Really. What did you think was going to happen? Sorry, but I am not surprised at all by the outcome of the Crimean referendum.  No doubt ballots were tampered with and much was rigged, but that is how it’s done in Russia, old school or new. And you can bet that Putin is going to leverage this win as he gets ready to make his next move. Considerate oligarch that he is, he’s given the world a little breathing room. He won’t take any action until March 21st. So the question is: what happens next?

Let’s start with this. What does Putin know that the rest of the world seems to be missing? You can call him crazy, and a selection of other unsavoury adjectives, but the fact is he has been playing this game to win, and so far he hasn’t stumbled. All the rhetoric the West can throw at him, all the Presidential late night phone calls and warnings have not deterred him. Infact, they have only strengthened his resolve. He is no friend to the West. He doesn’t think he has to be. Nor does Putin feel tied to Europe or North America for any strategic purposes. And as it stands, the sanctions recently imposed as punishment for Putin’s actions only affect certain political figures. Did somebody forget that lesson on paper tigers in history class?

Putin is playing to his strengths. He knows he has to. The Soviet Union is gone: Russia is ringed by former states it once controlled that are now part of NATO. And as allies go, Syria and Iran can hardly count. But there was no mistaking the confidence in his tone when Putin addressed his parliament this morning, sending a message to the rest of the world he knew would be watching. He called the US as guilty of disseminating propaganda as he was. Putin is posturing, making a show of strength now to make the most of his win. He needs to shore up the allegiance of Russians, so to further his argument that he truly is their protector.  Since he can control the media within Russia, he has done so. Freedom of speech never existed before the fall of the Wall, and it’s dubious to what extent it has been allowed to existed under Putin. The message is the same as it has always been: the West is not our friend, not to be trusted, not to be believed.

What cards does Putin hold in his hand? We know he has control over the pipelines and gas supplies feeding into the Ukraine and Europe. He has been considered the force that will influence Syria, since no Western powers can. He understands the rivalry between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians enough to have wrested Crimea. And, he has the military and nuclear capability to respond to any military intervention. But it’s the cards we can’t see that we should worry most about, if indeed Putin has that proverbial ace up his sleeve.

My Call on Crimea

The referendum is tomorrow. At least, for those of us lucky enough to live in North America the results are still long hours away. But the day of reckoning has dawned for those on the other side of the globe. I don’t want to see human suffering or war; I hope that I am wrong. But given all the facts, and my years of experience living through M.A.D. and the arms race, I have a marked understanding of Russia as the Soviet Union it once was; old habits die hard.

Putin knows he cannot go after the whole deck, not in this particular game of cards. He also realizes that time has marched on; there will never be another Soviet Union, not like what was. I will not compliment Putin and credit him with being visionary, but he does have a clear vision of what he wants near-term and for the future. He wants Russia to be more powerful, to have greater control regionally, and to send a clear message to the western alliances on his doorstep that not everything is theirs for the taking.

Putin made his move into Crimea and the Ukraine knowing that the rest of the world would not risk global warfare, or warfare at any level, to intercede. Thus far, no one has called his bluff. With tens of thousands of Russian troops and military equipment strategically located in Crimea and into the Ukraine, Putin is now readying himself for the aftermath of tomorrow’s referendum. He knows that as soon as an outcome is determined, pro and anti Russian forces will be unable to contain themselves and the rift he has nurtured will explode into violence. Nobody wants that to happen, but then history is full of civil wars that nobody wanted to have happen.

The rest of the world will watch as the votes are counted, offering up more heavily-worded rhetoric and talks of sanctions and other diplomatic measures in place of the action they cannot risk taking. And when the results are announced, everyone but Putin will feel powerless when violence erupts. It will erupt because the outcome of the referendum has already been decided in favour of Russia. We all know the votes are rigged and the process inherently tampered and tainted.

And Putin, an avowed advocate of old-school and hard-line policies, will deal with the problem as the Soviet Union would have done: absolute control, swift and hard. His troops will move in, overwhelming what comparatively meagre strength the Ukraine has, and take decisive action against the protestors. His forces will quash any resistance early on, because after going to all this trouble, Putin does not want these assets damaged any further. He knows that there will be no other military actions launched against him – effectively this crisis is a stalemate. Putin will vehemently defend his actions in the name of protecting those Russian-speaking citizens and interests he has sworn to protect. But the world will know it for what it is: Putin taking back what he believes is his as he takes control.

Do We Call His Bluff

Condemnations. Threats of sanctions. Expulsions of soldiers from formerly friendly nations. The level of tension keeps ratcheting up, but Putin is not backing down. His endgame, at this time, appears to be the annexation of Crimea and the retention, if not full control, of the Ukraine. There is no mistaking his intent, nor his determination to carry out his plan to its end. And no one, not President Obama, not Chancellor Merkel, has deterred him. Putin made the move he did because he could: the timing was right. For all the posturing and threats made by the west, a military intervention isn’t going to happen because the costs outweigh the benefits.

Hands up if you got to watch Fareed Zakaria GPS Sunday morning on CNN. He had a panel of experts weigh in. As per Stephen Kofkin, Director of Programs in Russian Studies at Princeton, “Ukraine is a basket-case… the EU was bluffing, going towards the Ukraine for something to do.” His theory is that the EU just isn’t that into the Ukraine to follow through with its offers, especially not with the unwanted baggage the Ukraine will bring. Professor Stephen Cohen, Professor Emeritus of Russian Studies at NYU and Princeton, made the somber observation that “we are two steps away from a Cuban Missile Crisis.”  He stated, quite astutely, that we weren’t listening to the Russians. In our eagerness to make Putin hear our threats, we weren’t hearing all that he had to say. And we need to know just what it is he wants to effectively determine how far he’ll go to get it.

This conflict isn’t about America’s political weakness. It’s about Russia’s. With the fall of the Wall post-1990, Russia has watched the west steadily move in, encroaching on its borders as new Nato allies form from the post-Soviet satellite states. Putin’s over-arching goal has been to restore Russia to her former strength, but he can never rebuild what was once the Soviet Union. For now, the most he can hope to win are Crimea and the Ukraine. From his vantage point, he sees no reason to fear or negotiate with President Obama because his present and future interests are not tied to America. But for all Putin’s defiance, Russia cannot go it alone. Over the past twenty years, the Russian economy has had to become linked to the world economy, and there are tenuous relationships in play with China. The world has changed, the rules have changed, and in order to keep what he had and go forward, Putin will need whatever alliances he has.

Don’t Cry for Me Sinaloa

The truth is I have not left you

Since his arrest two weeks ago, almost nothing has been reported about the head of the formidable Sinaloa Cartel. I have my own theories of the relationship between “El Chapo” and the current administration under President Pena-Nieto. While English language newsfeeds carried stories of the arrest, Spanish language feeds carried headlines proclaiming El Chapo financed the campaign this past summer of the new Mexican president.  As per an article in Borderland Beat on Feb. 22 2014, “something bad happened between the PRI and El Chapo Guzman”.

The PRI, Institutional Revolutionary Party, was more than a party. It was the party, and had held power in Mexico for 71 years. But as the adage goes, “absolute power corrupts absolutely.”  Corruption and electoral fraud led to internal rifts and the left-wing split to become the PAN party, which went on to win the election in 2000. For 12 years, PAN governed Mexico, most notably under Felipe Calderone who declared war on the Cartels in 2006. Violence sky-rocketed as the Cartels retaliated, putting law enforcement and civilians directly in the line of fire. The economy suffered equally, worsening the already endemic state of poverty and systemic corruption. Calderone made more enemies than friend during his tenure, and when the 2012 elections took place in July, it was no surprise that the PRI was restored to power.

The perception was that, under the PRI, keeping the Cartels happy had managed to keep the peace and maintain some degree of economic stability.  Essentially, the government had operated on a policy of “laissez-faire” and turning a blind eye, enabling the Cartels to develop increasingly more control and amass more wealth. Wealth which found its way into the pockets of the public officials who served their interests. The rich got richer; the poor got poorer. PAN, and Calderone, believed they could bring about necessary change but the levels of corruption were far beyond anything they could impact. The power of the Cartels determined the rule of law, and the government itself. As was proven out in July 2012 and the reinstatement of the old guard, the PRI.

At the time, Pena Nieto appeared nothing more than a very attractive puppet on strings, prepared to service the highest bidder. That would have been the Sinaloa Cartel and Chapo Guzman. And for the months that ensued, Guzman continued to enjoy freedom and control in Mexico, eluding capture until February 24 this year.

What went wrong? Why would Pena Nieto bite the hand that feeds him? At one time, when the battle for control of Mexico was clearly between Los Zetas and Sinaloa, it was clear who held the reins. But Cartel alliances are fleeting at best, and the internal politics are divisive and explosive. Los Zetas succumbed to internal rivalry and then the arrests of the brothers at the helm. Newer, younger gangs and cartels have evolved, changing the criminal topography of Mexico. Today, another key player has just been killed, El Chayo, the head of The Knights Templar Cartel.  With a number of smaller, weaker players vying for control, the government may be renegotiating their level of influence. As always, it comes down to who serves whose interests best. Chapo Guzman is still too powerful a figure to discard or take out of any equation regarding the future of Mexico.

A War of Words

I’m sure I’m not the first to use this headline to describe the current status of standoff between Putin and the rest of the world. But for now, it is the most accurate description.

We still don’t know what Putin’s endgame is, or what he will do next. According to Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin is delusional, out of touch with the reality of the situation. Her claims have been echoed by other prominent figures on the global stage, the venerable former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, adding that Putin may be getting the wrong facts and that things “don’t make sense.”

It’s interesting how, when things “don’t make sense” to our Western perspective, instead of taking them at face value we try to shove a square peg into a round hole, and apply our conventions. The problem with much of North America’s approach to foreign policy is that we do this repeatedly, with the same rate of failure. If we can’t explain everything to our satisfaction, we let ourselves get caught up in the semantics of why we don’t understand it as opposed to finding a way to confront the issue itself. Jihadism is a case in point. The concept of suicide bombers, of people willing to blow themselves to bits in the name of radical fundamentalism, introduced the West to a new and far deadlier type of warfare than we had ever fought. It unleashed new acts of terrorism that our strategies and training did not cover.

In the current Ukrainian crisis, labelling Putin as delusional could be dangerously short-sighted. He seems to understand the reality of his situation well enough to have orchestrated a naval blockade with 3 Russian warships in the strategic port of Sevastapol in Crimea. He has also amassed nearly 20,000 troops in Crimea, with equipment and arms. He knows he has control over the network of pipelines delivering natural gas to the Ukraine and into Europe. What’s more important, however, is that Putin knows how far the West will not go. The United States is war-weary: its citizens and its coffers will not support an armed intervention against Russia at this point. Nor will the Nato allies. Putin’s act of aggression cannot be met with anything similar; we are forced to resort to using our words.

So talk has been steady, sanctions and threats, warning Russia of how it will be isolated if further aggression continues. And here is where our failure to accept Putin at face value comes into play. In his oligarchic approach, Putin doesn’t care about being isolated. His endgame has always been about restoring Russia to its past glory, a formidable force that stood on its own, strong not by alliances but by control. He wants more than just Crimea; he wants the Ukraine back, in its entirety. The Ukraine will never leave to join the West. As was adroitly pointed out on CCN today during Anderson Cooper, Putin will poison the spoils.  The Ukraine will carry with it the unrelenting quest for control by Russia, and the inherent potential for conflict fuelled by pro-Russian loyalties.  Europe will find itself forced to reconsider its invitation. And the Ukraine will find itself with nowhere else to go.

If all plays out as Putin wants, he will have secured his hold back over the Ukraine, restoring Russia’s influence significantly. Yes, Putin is crazy. Crazy like a fox.

When Hell Freezes Over

This is the story that I have been waiting to write. Just as the crisis in the Ukraine was developing, there was another major news story. As quickly as it aired, it vanished. And yet, for me, and for anyone following the constantly evolving cartels in Mexico, this was more than newsworthy. This was historic. This would change everything. Because the most elusive criminal figure in organized crime in the western hemisphere had finally been caught.
On Saturday February 22, the story broke that Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman was now in the custody of Mexican authorities. This was the notorious head of the Sinaloa Cartel, a cartel kingpin who no adversary and certainly no law enforcement agent, had managed to take down in the ensuing bloodbath for control over Mexico. Everyone knew where he was: Mexico. Everyone knew where his stronghold was situated: somewhere in the central, mountainous region closer to the Pacific Ocean. There were numerous operations and armed assaults on suspected locations, but none ever yielded up Guzman. Until now.
The reason this all matters is that Chapo Guzman controlled far more than the drugs from his cartel. He controlled much of the drug trade in the west, managing Sinaloa more like a multi-national enterprise, a very profitable enterprise. To do that, Guzman had to strategically position himself ahead of all the other cartels vying for control. In 2010, major changes came with the emergence of a new, deadly and power-hungry cartel. Los Zetas had been the highly-trained armed enforcers for the powerful Gulf Cartel. Now, they wanted to claim their own stake. In a bloody declaration of their independence, they battled for control over the east coast of Mexico, and placing cities like Monterrey directly in the line of fire. The disparate groups banded into two alliances: one headed by Sinaloa and one by Los Zetas. Two formidable forces, with very different approaches, had effectively carved Mexico in half.
The loyalty of those within his ranks, or under his control, enabled Guzman to effectively hide in plain sight. More than any other cartel, Guzman and Sinaloa directed the affairs of government from the highest levels down to the smallest locales. And they held a similar hold over law officials. The proof of this has been validated and documented in stories and arrests. The sad truth is that decades of systemic corruption only made it easier for the cartels to exert their control and influence. While the former Calderone administration declared a war on drugs, they were vilified for the cost in human lives. Now, the Pena Nieto regime is a throwback to earlier days when the government had a more laissez-faire relationship with the cartels. For as much as the officials he bribed or coerced served his purposes, Chapo Guzman certainly served many interests, most importantly maintaining a balance of power amongst the cartels.
But cartel allegiances can shift like sand. Especially when cartels implode, or leadership is decimated by targeted attacks. Tijuana, La Familia, Gulf all suffered similar fates. Smaller, weaker cartels formed in their wake, further contributing to the inherent instability. And yet, Guzman maintained the helm and the integrity of Sinaloa. Until now.
Which raises some very important questions. What happens next? How will the balance of power be affected? Before anyone starts allocating spoils to the victor, we don’t really know who the victor really is. It’s still too soon to tell. Because with Guzman, we see only as much as he chooses to reveal. And the battle for control of Mexico is far from over.

Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid

The Chessmaster has been steadily making his moves. Since Friday, the world has watched Russian troops move into the Ukraine to stake Putin’s claim to what he himself has declared are important interests. This is a man who had no problem spending untold billions of dollars as he pleased under the guise of the Sochi Olympics. He sits at the head of a massive military establishment with full nuclear capabilities. His only real rival is the United States, and he knew that going in. So what is it that the rest of the world doesn’t know about Putin that has emboldened him to make this move now?
Lest we forget that Putin has always been a hold-out for the traditional approach. He wants what Russia once was, and the way things were. Crimea was supposed to have always been part of Russia; it was annexed to the Ukraine when that country became independent after the fall of Communism post-1990. The region is strategically essential because of its position along the Black Sea. Infact, the Russian Navy is still situated there, far outnumbering the Ukrainian forces that coexist. When the Ukraine first made its desires known to join Europe over Russia, that alerted Putin to start putting measures in place. He is not a man to lose control.
What is the diplomatic solution to overt aggression? At this moment, it’s all talk. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon is urging talks between Russia and the Ukraine, but that rhetoric be avoided, particularly inflammatory rhetoric lest things get worse. On Friday, President Obama took a tough stance and then again by private phone call Saturday warned Putin of the costs of his Ukrainian intervention. John Baird and others may be using their “toughest words” but the outward signs indicate we are well past that point, if we were ever there at all.
Putin has been waiting for this moment. He calculated these events, then waited for the time to strike. He has the playbook; the world is forced to respond, and anticipate. He is experienced enough to know there would be a direct impact on world markets, and that the ruble would fall. That evidently was no deterrent. Then there are the pipelines that run across Russia and feed oil-hungry countries, particularly the Ukraine. With its financial coffers plundered and emptied by it exiled ex-president Yanukovych, Ukraine is in dire straits financially. Putin has used his control over gas supplies in past to force the Ukraine to bend to his will; the threat is terribly effective and entirely at Putin’s discretion.
Putin now is sitting back and watching his opponents’ reactions. Russian jets have crossed over into Ukrainian airspace, to join the thousands of troops already there. Putin’s men are strategically placed in control over key airports, a communications center; and over Coast Guard and the main ferry terminal. The Russian Fleet has now also moved in and ordered the Ukrainian forces to surrender their fleet by 3:00 GMT. Prime Minister Aksyonov of Crimea insists he will not give up to anyone. But at this point, it’s still all words against Putin’s pieces in play.