Don’t Cry for Me Sinaloa

The truth is I have not left you

Since his arrest two weeks ago, almost nothing has been reported about the head of the formidable Sinaloa Cartel. I have my own theories of the relationship between “El Chapo” and the current administration under President Pena-Nieto. While English language newsfeeds carried stories of the arrest, Spanish language feeds carried headlines proclaiming El Chapo financed the campaign this past summer of the new Mexican president.  As per an article in Borderland Beat on Feb. 22 2014, “something bad happened between the PRI and El Chapo Guzman”.

The PRI, Institutional Revolutionary Party, was more than a party. It was the party, and had held power in Mexico for 71 years. But as the adage goes, “absolute power corrupts absolutely.”  Corruption and electoral fraud led to internal rifts and the left-wing split to become the PAN party, which went on to win the election in 2000. For 12 years, PAN governed Mexico, most notably under Felipe Calderone who declared war on the Cartels in 2006. Violence sky-rocketed as the Cartels retaliated, putting law enforcement and civilians directly in the line of fire. The economy suffered equally, worsening the already endemic state of poverty and systemic corruption. Calderone made more enemies than friend during his tenure, and when the 2012 elections took place in July, it was no surprise that the PRI was restored to power.

The perception was that, under the PRI, keeping the Cartels happy had managed to keep the peace and maintain some degree of economic stability.  Essentially, the government had operated on a policy of “laissez-faire” and turning a blind eye, enabling the Cartels to develop increasingly more control and amass more wealth. Wealth which found its way into the pockets of the public officials who served their interests. The rich got richer; the poor got poorer. PAN, and Calderone, believed they could bring about necessary change but the levels of corruption were far beyond anything they could impact. The power of the Cartels determined the rule of law, and the government itself. As was proven out in July 2012 and the reinstatement of the old guard, the PRI.

At the time, Pena Nieto appeared nothing more than a very attractive puppet on strings, prepared to service the highest bidder. That would have been the Sinaloa Cartel and Chapo Guzman. And for the months that ensued, Guzman continued to enjoy freedom and control in Mexico, eluding capture until February 24 this year.

What went wrong? Why would Pena Nieto bite the hand that feeds him? At one time, when the battle for control of Mexico was clearly between Los Zetas and Sinaloa, it was clear who held the reins. But Cartel alliances are fleeting at best, and the internal politics are divisive and explosive. Los Zetas succumbed to internal rivalry and then the arrests of the brothers at the helm. Newer, younger gangs and cartels have evolved, changing the criminal topography of Mexico. Today, another key player has just been killed, El Chayo, the head of The Knights Templar Cartel.  With a number of smaller, weaker players vying for control, the government may be renegotiating their level of influence. As always, it comes down to who serves whose interests best. Chapo Guzman is still too powerful a figure to discard or take out of any equation regarding the future of Mexico.

When Hell Freezes Over

This is the story that I have been waiting to write. Just as the crisis in the Ukraine was developing, there was another major news story. As quickly as it aired, it vanished. And yet, for me, and for anyone following the constantly evolving cartels in Mexico, this was more than newsworthy. This was historic. This would change everything. Because the most elusive criminal figure in organized crime in the western hemisphere had finally been caught.
On Saturday February 22, the story broke that Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman was now in the custody of Mexican authorities. This was the notorious head of the Sinaloa Cartel, a cartel kingpin who no adversary and certainly no law enforcement agent, had managed to take down in the ensuing bloodbath for control over Mexico. Everyone knew where he was: Mexico. Everyone knew where his stronghold was situated: somewhere in the central, mountainous region closer to the Pacific Ocean. There were numerous operations and armed assaults on suspected locations, but none ever yielded up Guzman. Until now.
The reason this all matters is that Chapo Guzman controlled far more than the drugs from his cartel. He controlled much of the drug trade in the west, managing Sinaloa more like a multi-national enterprise, a very profitable enterprise. To do that, Guzman had to strategically position himself ahead of all the other cartels vying for control. In 2010, major changes came with the emergence of a new, deadly and power-hungry cartel. Los Zetas had been the highly-trained armed enforcers for the powerful Gulf Cartel. Now, they wanted to claim their own stake. In a bloody declaration of their independence, they battled for control over the east coast of Mexico, and placing cities like Monterrey directly in the line of fire. The disparate groups banded into two alliances: one headed by Sinaloa and one by Los Zetas. Two formidable forces, with very different approaches, had effectively carved Mexico in half.
The loyalty of those within his ranks, or under his control, enabled Guzman to effectively hide in plain sight. More than any other cartel, Guzman and Sinaloa directed the affairs of government from the highest levels down to the smallest locales. And they held a similar hold over law officials. The proof of this has been validated and documented in stories and arrests. The sad truth is that decades of systemic corruption only made it easier for the cartels to exert their control and influence. While the former Calderone administration declared a war on drugs, they were vilified for the cost in human lives. Now, the Pena Nieto regime is a throwback to earlier days when the government had a more laissez-faire relationship with the cartels. For as much as the officials he bribed or coerced served his purposes, Chapo Guzman certainly served many interests, most importantly maintaining a balance of power amongst the cartels.
But cartel allegiances can shift like sand. Especially when cartels implode, or leadership is decimated by targeted attacks. Tijuana, La Familia, Gulf all suffered similar fates. Smaller, weaker cartels formed in their wake, further contributing to the inherent instability. And yet, Guzman maintained the helm and the integrity of Sinaloa. Until now.
Which raises some very important questions. What happens next? How will the balance of power be affected? Before anyone starts allocating spoils to the victor, we don’t really know who the victor really is. It’s still too soon to tell. Because with Guzman, we see only as much as he chooses to reveal. And the battle for control of Mexico is far from over.

What I Write and Why

You’ll find a lot of my blog entries will be about Mexico, and specifically about the major drug cartels and their battle for control. I’ve been writing a series about a DEA agent up against a Colombian drug lord that takes them into the no-man’s land of Mexican cartels. They say “write what you know” which meant I had to do a whole lot of research. I never set out to be come a SME in this field but there were so many tangents that begged me to follow them, so many voices of the dead to be heard and recorded. It’s definitely not a subject for the faint of heart. It’s scary business. Which is why you will also find my posts about the journalists who risk their lives to cover these stories, and why I carry their stories further.

In the battleground of Mexico, freedoms we take for granted, the freedom of speech and of the press,  have been taken from the people by the cartels. Mexico is considered the most dangerous place in the world for journalists, because to write a story about the cartels, to honestly cover and report on their dealings, is to write your own death warrant. Journalists and their families are hunted down and murdered for reporting on the cartels. This is very real, and impossible for the country to fight from within. One story that caught my attention just over a year ago (from an article by Chivis Martinez in Borderland Beat) was about a young Mexican journalist who went missing since January with her young son. Stephania Cardosa didn’t cover stories about narcotics or cartels, however. Her beat was mundane. Mostly traffic issues. And yet, she appeared to have been selected to send a message. “She is a crime reporter, but I could not find any articles with narco crimes or narco activity as her subject. Many were of traffic accidents … after unsuccessful attempts to reach Cardoso, her family went to her home to check on her. When they arrived at the home they discovered Cardoso and her toddler son were missing. The home had been thrashed, with her belongs scattered about and her camera broken on the floor. Her vehicle is also missing.”  http://www.borderlandbeat.com/

An update to the story by reporter Chivis Martinez revealed Stephania and her son were alive but in hiding, and in fear for their lives. In the update, he said of Cardosa  “She knows that many people are concerned for them, but for their safety she cannot communicate with anyone nor her family. She asks the Federals of Mexico for protection not only for her and her son but for her family.”  For all the Stephanias out there, thank you. We’re watching. We’re reading.