It’s no secret that Putin plays politics in the global arena by toddler’s rules: what’s mine is mine, and what’s yours is mine too. But he carries out his strategies like the chessmaster he is. I won’t credit him as a brilliant strategist. Just cunning. And that’s been enough to keep him winning his game. Because for the rest of us, it’s hard to play when we don’t know what the game actually is, let alone the rules.
But Putin has made a strategic move beyond his current comfort control zone of the Ukraine and Crimea. He’s extended his reach into the ISIS hotbed of Syria, purportedly to offer assistance to his remaining ally in the region, Bashar Al Assad, against ISIS and Syrian rebels. That should be good, right? The enemy of my enemy as it goes. Except that Putin always has his own agenda. He’s sending in the forces he used to march into the Ukraine. According to The Daily Beast:
“Building up a garrison in Syria absent any coordination with Washington but coinciding with talk of future coordination is a hallmark of a KGB president looking to get the better of his counterparts: establish a fait accompli, then negotiate the terms of the West’s surrender to it.”
Russia, ie Putin, needs Syria, because they need to retain control over their lone naval base in that region, just off the Syrian coast. With Al Assad’s strength weakening, the timing is right for Putin to move in and start putting strings to a puppet he has aimed to control for some time. With his buddy Bashar at the helm, Putin can secure his presence in the region, and not worry about what hold he may have lost when the governments of Libya and Iraq collapsed. Iran is the other remaining ally in the region, but there’s a little matter of a Nuclear Agreement happening. Although Russia has an involvement in that too.
For the moment, NATO and the US were expecting Russia to work alongside them in the battle against ISIS, on Syrian soil. They’d been led to expect as much from Russia’s overtures to the west to get involved. And now there are genuine concerns ISIS has been helping itself to Assad’s chemical coffers to concoct their own weapons, and pack their brand of mustard gas into mortar shells.
But ISIS isn’t the priority for Putin. It can remain the west’s problem while Putin assesses when and how to best deploy his strengths in the region. Because he only makes a move like this when he knows what the payoff will be: his control. He’s not questioning his ability to get the situation in hand, in his favour. Neither should the west. Because when that plays out, Putin will follow through on the rest of his plan. Yes, Iraq and Libya. Putin happens to be in the neighbourhood and he’ll decide to just drop in. And stay until he gets those houses in order. Which leaves Iran.
I’ve already weighed in on what I think of the Nuclear deal waiting to be passed. Trust isn’t something you win back easily, and Stuxnet revealed more about Iran and its attitude toward the west than they may have anticipated. Given the opportunity, and the means, weaponization will happen. But nothing is in place as yet. If Russia should take the helm however, Iran may get to develop its nuclear program under another authority, rendering all our arguments mute. There is talk that Russia’s intervention in the Syrian conflict may offer the best solution.
“Even the United Kingdom has acknowledged that any political solution for Syria “is going to have to be a decision made by the sponsors of the key players in Syria, and in particular Iran and Russia deciding to call the shots with the Assad regime… All he need do now is position himself as the one man who can stem the flow of refugees onto continental shores, beat back ISIS, and end a conflict of his own making in eastern Ukraine. Anyone who thinks he can’t pull it off hasn’t been paying close attention.” The Daily Beast
Please don’t tell me we didn’t see this coming.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/10/putin-sends-his-dirty-war-forces-to-syria.html
Issues and Intersections 