The truth is I have not left you
Since his arrest two weeks ago, almost nothing has been reported about the head of the formidable Sinaloa Cartel. I have my own theories of the relationship between “El Chapo” and the current administration under President Pena-Nieto. While English language newsfeeds carried stories of the arrest, Spanish language feeds carried headlines proclaiming El Chapo financed the campaign this past summer of the new Mexican president. As per an article in Borderland Beat on Feb. 22 2014, “something bad happened between the PRI and El Chapo Guzman”.
The PRI, Institutional Revolutionary Party, was more than a party. It was the party, and had held power in Mexico for 71 years. But as the adage goes, “absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Corruption and electoral fraud led to internal rifts and the left-wing split to become the PAN party, which went on to win the election in 2000. For 12 years, PAN governed Mexico, most notably under Felipe Calderone who declared war on the Cartels in 2006. Violence sky-rocketed as the Cartels retaliated, putting law enforcement and civilians directly in the line of fire. The economy suffered equally, worsening the already endemic state of poverty and systemic corruption. Calderone made more enemies than friend during his tenure, and when the 2012 elections took place in July, it was no surprise that the PRI was restored to power.
The perception was that, under the PRI, keeping the Cartels happy had managed to keep the peace and maintain some degree of economic stability. Essentially, the government had operated on a policy of “laissez-faire” and turning a blind eye, enabling the Cartels to develop increasingly more control and amass more wealth. Wealth which found its way into the pockets of the public officials who served their interests. The rich got richer; the poor got poorer. PAN, and Calderone, believed they could bring about necessary change but the levels of corruption were far beyond anything they could impact. The power of the Cartels determined the rule of law, and the government itself. As was proven out in July 2012 and the reinstatement of the old guard, the PRI.
At the time, Pena Nieto appeared nothing more than a very attractive puppet on strings, prepared to service the highest bidder. That would have been the Sinaloa Cartel and Chapo Guzman. And for the months that ensued, Guzman continued to enjoy freedom and control in Mexico, eluding capture until February 24 this year.
What went wrong? Why would Pena Nieto bite the hand that feeds him? At one time, when the battle for control of Mexico was clearly between Los Zetas and Sinaloa, it was clear who held the reins. But Cartel alliances are fleeting at best, and the internal politics are divisive and explosive. Los Zetas succumbed to internal rivalry and then the arrests of the brothers at the helm. Newer, younger gangs and cartels have evolved, changing the criminal topography of Mexico. Today, another key player has just been killed, El Chayo, the head of The Knights Templar Cartel. With a number of smaller, weaker players vying for control, the government may be renegotiating their level of influence. As always, it comes down to who serves whose interests best. Chapo Guzman is still too powerful a figure to discard or take out of any equation regarding the future of Mexico.
Issues and Intersections 