We should have known it was coming because of Sochi. Really, could there have been a more effective precursor to the siege of Ukraine than that monument to Putin’s ego: the Sochi Olympics? The games were a blatant, audacious assertion to the world that Putin answered to no one; that on Russian soil, international regulations and laws did not apply.
Fast forward 6 months. Putin has made it abundantly clear that international regulations and laws do not apply to him. As he made his play for Crimea, the world watched, choosing to believe he wouldn’t do it. But he did. When Malaysian Airlines flight 17 went down over a disputed border region in Ukraine, there was little question that Russian rebel forces in the region had been armed with and fired the weapon that downed the civilian airliner. The area was engaged in active warfare, which made investigation of the crash site and recovery of the bodies both dangerous and difficult. Putin, however, elevated it to a whole new level of hell. Because he could.
Sanctions and strong words have accomplished nothing, not even saving face for those global powers who feel they have no better recourse. As the saying goes, actions speak louder than words and Putin has sent a clear message hard on the heels of hard sanctions: I don’t need you. Putin really does not care if the world hates him.
Chess master Garry Kasparov called Putin “the most dangerous man in the world.” In his recent interview with Yahoo News and Finance Anchor Bianna Golodryga, Kasparov went on to say he regarded Putin as a greater threat than ISIS/ISIL, which was only serving to distract the world. I’m with Kasparov on his views of Putin, but ISIS is an immediate threat, not a distraction, and I’ll give them their own blog post later. I think the value in what Kasparov has to say is found in asserting how late everyone was to respond in any meaningful way to Putin’s aggression. Too little, too late is the term that keeps coming up. Sanctions are of limited effectiveness, and the damage they inflict on Russia will in turn be inflicted on the global economy and those European nations who rely on the gas shipped through the pipelines. Given events over the past year, since Sochi, we have good reason to believe that Putin believes western governments “will blink… they will capitulate.” Kasparov may be very accurate in his assertion that Putin “is calling the world’s bluff. He is playing poker while everyone else is playing chess.”
That’s why at this rate, we cannot expect to win. Not when Putin calls the game, then makes the rules. The danger with Putin isn’t what we can see but what we can’t. So the question becomes: why haven’t we changed our play book, or better yet thrown it out? In Putin’s quest to reclaim what isn’t his, he is banking on us to follow the rules of conventional warfare and to govern our actions according to the tenets of good statesmanship. We have all but handed him the upper hand.
I think it’s time to pull out another manual, entitled “Desperate Times Desperate Measures.” This one is filled with what Putin won’t see coming. It will be ugly, painful, and harsh. Which pretty much defines war and other acts of aggression. And it is in a language Putin will understand very clearly. As will the Russian people he controls. Maybe that’s the real name of the game: control. His to wield, his to lose. And ours to pull out from beneath him by inciting dissent and chaos from within. Much like Putin has already done in Ukraine.
Everyone has their weakness, their breaking point. Even Putin. We just haven’t found his … yet.
Issues and Intersections 
What’s past is prologue. This is becoming a very dangerous game Putin is playing and the longer it goes on without consequences the more dangerous it become. He is not going to stop on his own or because of economic sanctions.
What’s past is prologue. This is becoming a very dangerous game Putin is playing and the longer it goes on without consequences the more dangerous it become. He is not going to stop on his own or because of economic sanctions.
Thanks for your comments. You summed things up perfectly.