Where’s Putin?

It’s been 8 days now.  And one of the most dangerous men in the world today is MIA.  If his henchmen know, they aren’t telling. And you can bet he hasn’t gone fishing.

Of late, Putin has been busy laying siege to Donetsk and the beleagured citizens of Ukraine. When he hasn’t been contracting out hits on his chief political opponents, like Boris Nemtsov. It’s been a while since I sharpened my verbal claws at Putin’s expense, but the sad truth is, things haven’t changed. He’s only proved out my initial allegations.

So where’s Putin? The rumour mills are rife. Let’s dispell some of those better ones, shall we? I don’t think he’s gone to Switzerland for the birth of his love-child.  Nor do I think the Orthodox Russian Church has staged a coup.  And no, he has not been abducted by aliens. I’m more inclined to agree with the recent New York Post article that says Putin ‘disappeared on purpose to distract everyone from the problems and economic pressures piling up around them.’

But something is definitely up.  Per the New York Post article, at least two news articles have had the dates doctored to make it seem like Putin was there when he wasn’t. This wouldn’t be the first time that Putin has pulled a disappearing act when there was turmoil:  2000 when the Kursk submarine sank and in 2002 when hundreds of theatre goers were held captive by terrorists in Moscow. He’s got a lot of unsavoury stuff on his plate right now, including a worsening economic situation.

But he also, clearly, has an agenda, and he’s been able to follow it almost unimpeded, save for ineffective economic sanctions and a lot of huffing and puffing by international figures.  My guess is that he’s pulled away to regroup and reassess.  He is still the chessmaster, adept at concealing his true intent and next move. He is setting something up now. And he needs to be ready by Monday to keep the world in order. It could be a very clever ploy to get someone to overstep their bounds into his territory, giving him the cause he wants to engage. As I have always cautioned with Putin, never underestimate him.  We really don’t know what he is going to do, and that’s how he wants it.

Maybe CNN’s Sunday team will have a fresh spin on the scuttlebutt. But if Putin doesn’t want to be found until he’s ready to come out, we’ll just be hearing replays of what’s already out there. Watch, wait, and be ready for anything.

Thanks for reading!

Cheryl Biswas

Putin’s games, Putin’s rules

We should have known it was coming because of Sochi.  Really, could there have been a more effective precursor to the siege of Ukraine than that monument to Putin’s ego: the Sochi Olympics? The games were a blatant, audacious assertion to the world that Putin answered to no one; that on Russian soil, international regulations and laws did not apply.

Fast forward 6 months. Putin has made it abundantly clear that international regulations and laws do not apply to him. As he made his play for Crimea, the world watched, choosing to believe he wouldn’t do it. But he did. When Malaysian Airlines flight 17 went down over a disputed border region in Ukraine, there was little question that Russian rebel forces in the region had been armed with and fired the weapon that downed the civilian airliner. The area was engaged in active warfare, which made investigation of the crash site and recovery of the bodies both dangerous and difficult. Putin, however, elevated it to a whole new level of hell. Because he could.

Sanctions and strong words have accomplished nothing, not even saving face for those global powers who feel they have no better recourse.  As the saying goes, actions speak louder than words and Putin has sent a clear message hard on the heels of hard sanctions: I don’t need you. Putin really does not care if the world hates him.

Chess master Garry Kasparov called Putin “the most dangerous man in the world.”  In his recent interview with Yahoo News and Finance Anchor Bianna Golodryga, Kasparov went on to say he regarded Putin as a greater threat than ISIS/ISIL, which was only serving to distract the world. I’m with Kasparov on his views of Putin, but ISIS is an immediate threat, not a distraction, and I’ll give them their own blog post later. I think the value in what Kasparov has to say is found in asserting how late everyone was to respond in any meaningful way to Putin’s aggression. Too little, too late is the term that keeps coming up. Sanctions are of limited effectiveness, and the damage they inflict on Russia will in turn be inflicted on the global economy and those European nations who rely on the gas shipped through the pipelines. Given events over the past year, since Sochi, we have good reason to believe that Putin believes western governments “will blink… they will capitulate.” Kasparov may be very accurate in his assertion that Putin “is calling the world’s bluff. He is playing poker while everyone else is playing chess.”

That’s why at this rate, we cannot expect to win. Not when Putin calls the game, then makes the rules. The danger with Putin isn’t what we can see but what we can’t. So the question becomes: why haven’t we changed our play book, or better yet thrown it out?   In Putin’s quest to reclaim what isn’t his, he is banking on us to follow the rules of conventional warfare and to govern our actions according to the tenets of good statesmanship. We have all but handed him the upper hand.

I think it’s time to pull out another manual, entitled “Desperate Times Desperate Measures.” This one is filled with what Putin won’t see coming. It will be ugly, painful, and harsh. Which pretty much defines war and other acts of aggression. And it is in a language Putin will understand very clearly. As will the Russian people he controls. Maybe that’s the real name of the game: control. His to wield, his to lose. And ours to pull out from beneath him by inciting dissent and chaos from within. Much like Putin has already done in Ukraine.

Everyone has their weakness, their breaking point. Even Putin. We just haven’t found his … yet.

Write Here, Write Now

“Right Here, Right Now.” Big song by Jesus Jones in the early 1990s, when the Berlin Wall had just fallen and every day seemed like a brave, new world. It resonated with me, because it captured the energy and wonder of the moment. Anything was possible, and we were going to be part of what came next. After studying poli sci in university, where the focus was on the negatives of the conflict between the USSR and the US, and then the situation in the middle east between Israel and everyone else, to see the rule of Russia’s iron fist topple with a brick wall represented so much more. We were riding the crest of a huge wave of change and it was thrilling.

“There is no other place I’d rather be.” Fast forward twenty years. Surprise – I didn’t get to pursue a career as a political analyst but am following through on that now. Hence this blog. There is a famous Chinese saying: May you live in interesting times. At this moment, there are so many important events I could cover: Putin in Russia; Syria; the increasing threat of Boko Haram in Nigeria; Israel; Afghanistan; Iran; North Korea; China; climate change; fracking. I am engrossed, fascinated, inspired, driven to just keep abreast of what’s going on and trying to fit pieces from the past together with the present to see where the future is.

“Watching the world wake up from history.”  There is no leaving the past behind. We need to carry forward the lessons learned and unlearned, because history is a harsh teacher, and repeats itself in the cruelest ways. I am watching CNN and State of the Union as they discuss the unravelling of Ukraine, and debate whether or not this is going to be a civil war. Actually, Candy Crowley is trying her damnedest to get these experts to admit that yes, this is a burgeoning civil war. And while they can’t bring themselves to accuse him directly, the allegations are being made that Putin is behind fomenting this explosion of internal violence.

They are reiterating right now what we’ve covered in my previous blog posts. Civil wars are so ugly because they tear apart lives and families, laying waste to prosperity and normalcy as they destroy a country from within. Putin is actively setting things up within Ukraine to destabilize the nation so that when the time is right, he can step in and take it. This is how Putin has played the game all along. He wants Ukraine, in its entirety, and he will take nothing less.

I read a recent piece by Stratford Security saying that Obama was doing what he had to do by imposing ineffective sanctions, because he had no other actionable choices. He couldn’t march his troops into Ukraine. How exactly is he supposed to strong-arm Russia, or more accurately, Putin, into stepping back? At this point, we cannot legally prove Putin is behind things, and in the murky waters of diplomatic politics, you have to be very careful about what you say.  As a blogger, I can call things as I see them because I enjoy a greater degree of freedom of expression than do diplomats or world leaders. Carelessly firing accusations can be just as dangerous as waving around a loaded gun.

So, I’ll say what I believe needs to be said, bring things to light, and take the risks for those who can’t speak freely. There’s a lot going on out there in the world and I’ve got a lot to say. Write Here, Write Now.

When Will the Gloves Come Off?

There has been a steady stream of complaints regarding the failure to act on the part of President Obama. I happen to think Barack Obama is a gifted speaker, a brilliant man, and capable of achieving great things for the country he loves. Unlike other statesmen, who dazzle us with personality and panache, President Obama isn’t in it for the glory. He has a job to do, and he has to work with and work around a great many people and forces.  What I have always admired about him as leader is that he carefully considers his actions, regardless of what the press or even the people may say.  Fools rush in.  The world is very fortunate that the man at the helm of the most powerful nation in the world is no fool.

On Wednesday, President Obama delivered his address on US – European relations. It served as an eloquent declaration of action to both Putin and the world.  I was fortunate enough to hear the speech delivered live. If you missed it, here is a link to the full transcript in the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/transcript-president-obama-gives-speech-addressing-europe-russia-on-march-26/2014/03/26/07ae80ae-b503-11e3-b899-20667de76985_story.html.

The speech begins with an easy but relevant history of how the ideals of democracy were born in Europe and carried to America and around the world. Then, the spectre of Putin’s aggression is first addressed.
“But those ideals have also been tested, here in Europe and around the world. Those ideals have often been threatened by an older, more traditional view of power. This alternative vision argues that ordinary men and women are too small-minded to govern their own affairs, that order and progress can only come when individuals surrender their rights to an all-powerful sovereign.”

He goes on to describe the formation of NATO by the alliance of America with Europe “to reject the darker forces of the past and build a new architecture of peace,” and how this stood in stark contrast to the oppressive control wielded by the Soviet Union. A subtle prelude to what he will say regarding Putin.

He then delivers a rousing acknowledgement of how many nations achieved democracy and freedom across the twentieth century, reminding the audience that this generation knows an unprecedented level of freedom and prosperity. Then, he sounds the first warning bell:
“So I come here today to insist that we must never take for granted the progress that has been won here in Europe and advanced around the world, because the contest of ideas continues for your generation. And that’s what’s at stake in Ukraine today. Russia’s leadership is challenging truths that only a few weeks ago seemed self-evident, that in the 21st century, the borders of Europe cannot be redrawn with force, that international law matters, that people and nations can make their own decisions about their future.”

He states directly that the US will not be complacent, that the US believes in the freedom of nations, democracy and human dignity. He reminds the audience of the United Nations, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and international law, and how we must all work together to enforce them.  He accuses Russia of violating international law and stresses the action against the Ukraine must be met with condemnation.  He establishes how Russia has been isolated politically, suspended from the G-8 group of nations, and has been penalized with sanctions. And then how the Ukraine will be offered major financial aid packages and other supports.

The take-away line of the speech was this:  “this is not another cold war that we’re entering into.” President Obama is careful to establish history will not be repeating itself. There won’t be a division of nations along those lines again. And then he draws the line in the sand stating:
“What we will do always is uphold our solemn obligation, our Article 5 duty, to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our allies. And in that promise we will never waver. NATO nations never stand alone.

To back this up, he points out that NATO planes fly the skies in the Baltics and that they have reinforced their presence in Poland. And that they will do more. However he doesn’t say what. Rather, he calls upon NATO members to step and do more.

So what does that mean for Ukraine? I think this statement sums it up:
“Of course Ukraine is not a member of NATO, in part because of its close and complex history with Russia. Nor will Russia be dislodged from Crimea or deterred from further escalation by military force.”

Mr. Obama knows, as we all should, that the crisis in the Ukraine will not be resolved by foreign parties marching in. And, as has become apparent, Putin does not care about sanctions or being part of any international collective other than his own. So, as the speech moves to its end, Mr. Obama tries a different tact, and like a parent to their wayward child, appeals to Russia to rejoin them, that the world is a stronger, better place with Russia working alongside them.  The speech then finishes with more wonderfully worded encouragement and defence of ideals we all hold dear.

If this were a war of words, then hands down the US would have won. Unfortunately, it isn’t, and Putin has not been deterred by what anyone has had to say. For him, this game has only begun, and he will not back down. President Obama should be ready to toss those gloves off and to make good on his commitment to defend fellow NATO nations.

First Crimea, then the World

Well, that’s how the political pundits are making it sound. Personally, I don’t give anyone that much credit, not even Vladimir Putin. Yes, he got Crimea.  Really. What did you think was going to happen? Sorry, but I am not surprised at all by the outcome of the Crimean referendum.  No doubt ballots were tampered with and much was rigged, but that is how it’s done in Russia, old school or new. And you can bet that Putin is going to leverage this win as he gets ready to make his next move. Considerate oligarch that he is, he’s given the world a little breathing room. He won’t take any action until March 21st. So the question is: what happens next?

Let’s start with this. What does Putin know that the rest of the world seems to be missing? You can call him crazy, and a selection of other unsavoury adjectives, but the fact is he has been playing this game to win, and so far he hasn’t stumbled. All the rhetoric the West can throw at him, all the Presidential late night phone calls and warnings have not deterred him. Infact, they have only strengthened his resolve. He is no friend to the West. He doesn’t think he has to be. Nor does Putin feel tied to Europe or North America for any strategic purposes. And as it stands, the sanctions recently imposed as punishment for Putin’s actions only affect certain political figures. Did somebody forget that lesson on paper tigers in history class?

Putin is playing to his strengths. He knows he has to. The Soviet Union is gone: Russia is ringed by former states it once controlled that are now part of NATO. And as allies go, Syria and Iran can hardly count. But there was no mistaking the confidence in his tone when Putin addressed his parliament this morning, sending a message to the rest of the world he knew would be watching. He called the US as guilty of disseminating propaganda as he was. Putin is posturing, making a show of strength now to make the most of his win. He needs to shore up the allegiance of Russians, so to further his argument that he truly is their protector.  Since he can control the media within Russia, he has done so. Freedom of speech never existed before the fall of the Wall, and it’s dubious to what extent it has been allowed to existed under Putin. The message is the same as it has always been: the West is not our friend, not to be trusted, not to be believed.

What cards does Putin hold in his hand? We know he has control over the pipelines and gas supplies feeding into the Ukraine and Europe. He has been considered the force that will influence Syria, since no Western powers can. He understands the rivalry between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians enough to have wrested Crimea. And, he has the military and nuclear capability to respond to any military intervention. But it’s the cards we can’t see that we should worry most about, if indeed Putin has that proverbial ace up his sleeve.

Do We Call His Bluff

Condemnations. Threats of sanctions. Expulsions of soldiers from formerly friendly nations. The level of tension keeps ratcheting up, but Putin is not backing down. His endgame, at this time, appears to be the annexation of Crimea and the retention, if not full control, of the Ukraine. There is no mistaking his intent, nor his determination to carry out his plan to its end. And no one, not President Obama, not Chancellor Merkel, has deterred him. Putin made the move he did because he could: the timing was right. For all the posturing and threats made by the west, a military intervention isn’t going to happen because the costs outweigh the benefits.

Hands up if you got to watch Fareed Zakaria GPS Sunday morning on CNN. He had a panel of experts weigh in. As per Stephen Kofkin, Director of Programs in Russian Studies at Princeton, “Ukraine is a basket-case… the EU was bluffing, going towards the Ukraine for something to do.” His theory is that the EU just isn’t that into the Ukraine to follow through with its offers, especially not with the unwanted baggage the Ukraine will bring. Professor Stephen Cohen, Professor Emeritus of Russian Studies at NYU and Princeton, made the somber observation that “we are two steps away from a Cuban Missile Crisis.”  He stated, quite astutely, that we weren’t listening to the Russians. In our eagerness to make Putin hear our threats, we weren’t hearing all that he had to say. And we need to know just what it is he wants to effectively determine how far he’ll go to get it.

This conflict isn’t about America’s political weakness. It’s about Russia’s. With the fall of the Wall post-1990, Russia has watched the west steadily move in, encroaching on its borders as new Nato allies form from the post-Soviet satellite states. Putin’s over-arching goal has been to restore Russia to her former strength, but he can never rebuild what was once the Soviet Union. For now, the most he can hope to win are Crimea and the Ukraine. From his vantage point, he sees no reason to fear or negotiate with President Obama because his present and future interests are not tied to America. But for all Putin’s defiance, Russia cannot go it alone. Over the past twenty years, the Russian economy has had to become linked to the world economy, and there are tenuous relationships in play with China. The world has changed, the rules have changed, and in order to keep what he had and go forward, Putin will need whatever alliances he has.

Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid

The Chessmaster has been steadily making his moves. Since Friday, the world has watched Russian troops move into the Ukraine to stake Putin’s claim to what he himself has declared are important interests. This is a man who had no problem spending untold billions of dollars as he pleased under the guise of the Sochi Olympics. He sits at the head of a massive military establishment with full nuclear capabilities. His only real rival is the United States, and he knew that going in. So what is it that the rest of the world doesn’t know about Putin that has emboldened him to make this move now?
Lest we forget that Putin has always been a hold-out for the traditional approach. He wants what Russia once was, and the way things were. Crimea was supposed to have always been part of Russia; it was annexed to the Ukraine when that country became independent after the fall of Communism post-1990. The region is strategically essential because of its position along the Black Sea. Infact, the Russian Navy is still situated there, far outnumbering the Ukrainian forces that coexist. When the Ukraine first made its desires known to join Europe over Russia, that alerted Putin to start putting measures in place. He is not a man to lose control.
What is the diplomatic solution to overt aggression? At this moment, it’s all talk. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon is urging talks between Russia and the Ukraine, but that rhetoric be avoided, particularly inflammatory rhetoric lest things get worse. On Friday, President Obama took a tough stance and then again by private phone call Saturday warned Putin of the costs of his Ukrainian intervention. John Baird and others may be using their “toughest words” but the outward signs indicate we are well past that point, if we were ever there at all.
Putin has been waiting for this moment. He calculated these events, then waited for the time to strike. He has the playbook; the world is forced to respond, and anticipate. He is experienced enough to know there would be a direct impact on world markets, and that the ruble would fall. That evidently was no deterrent. Then there are the pipelines that run across Russia and feed oil-hungry countries, particularly the Ukraine. With its financial coffers plundered and emptied by it exiled ex-president Yanukovych, Ukraine is in dire straits financially. Putin has used his control over gas supplies in past to force the Ukraine to bend to his will; the threat is terribly effective and entirely at Putin’s discretion.
Putin now is sitting back and watching his opponents’ reactions. Russian jets have crossed over into Ukrainian airspace, to join the thousands of troops already there. Putin’s men are strategically placed in control over key airports, a communications center; and over Coast Guard and the main ferry terminal. The Russian Fleet has now also moved in and ordered the Ukrainian forces to surrender their fleet by 3:00 GMT. Prime Minister Aksyonov of Crimea insists he will not give up to anyone. But at this point, it’s still all words against Putin’s pieces in play.

Keeping Watch

The Sochi Olympics are set to open and the eyes of the world are focussed on Russia. As well they should be, since neighbouring Ukraine is demanding our attention. Nobody wants to detract from the glorious spectacle of the Olympics. It is a celebration of things we wish really were, and for that brief fleeting moment they are, as athletes parade in and nations compete for medals, not control.

But what is unfolding in the Ukraine is ugly, and scary, and something history has visited upon us repeatedly. Since its independence in 1990, economic prosperity and political development have been hampered by recessions and rampant corruption. This is nothing new to Russia or the region. Even the drama for control between Victor Yanukovytch and Yulia Tymoshenko typified the way in which politics have always been conducted.  What is different is that Ukraine is now a country of divided loyalties, torn between its history and bond with Russia, and its yearning to join the EU. Leaving the past behind to move ahead, progress.

These are the divisions that can drive a nation to civil war. Given the Ukraine’s recent history, these events remind me far too much of how quickly and violently Yugoslavia slid into the horrific war that ripped apart a modern, beautiful country. The world watched the aftermath of that. The brutal legacy of Bosnia and Sarajevo still live on.  I know Putin is watching, very carefully. Which means the rest of the world needs to be on watch as well.