A Matter Of Time: Lessons from the Ukraine Power Grid Attack

On Dec 23 2015 there was an attack on the Prykarpattyaoblenergo power grid, in the Ivano-Frankivsk region of Western Ukraine. 30 substations serving some 230,000 customers were taken down for about 6 hours in the depths of winter’s cold just before Christmas.  Attacks on critical infrastructure, like power grids, water supplies, and nuclear plants, aren’t just the plot of movies. They do happen in real life.  Only the consequences aren’t scripted and the clean up isn’t contained to a movie lot.

In her recent piece for Wired, Kim Zetter writes an excellent analysis of how events unfolded which shows how this was no ordinary attack.And that’s the part where we need to sit up and listen.  Somebody invested serious money, manpower and planning to make this happen. Which means they are prepared to do it again. Naturally, all speculation turned to Russia as the perpetrator. Putin, leveraging Russia in his endgame, has been brazen in his quest for control of the region. He annexed Crimea and has been relentless in his onslaught against Ukraine. Poland is very nervous about what will come next. And with Putin, nobody really knows what move he will make. But without absolute certainty, the finger of blame won’t be pointed in this case. Attribution, after all, can be a very dangerous game.

But this is more than just Russia vs Ukraine. This event is a harbinger of major change, a shift in how global conflict will be played out. This is being called the first cyberattack on critical infrastructure, all those things we take for granted in our daily lives: power, water, transportation, fuel, online access.  Because today everything is plugged in and connected from the marble palaces of Manhattan to the dirt road villages of Nigeria. That is a lot of attack surface. So many targets. What happened here is the playing field didn’t just get levelled. It changed. Meaning we’ve got a whole new roster of potential players.

But wait – there’s more. A major concern is the deteriorating physical condition of many components that are part of ICS or Industrial Control Systems and of SCADA, the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition system that oversees wide areas of critical infrastructure. Utilities are known to run things to the point of failure, and don’t change unless they fall under regulatory compliance.  NERC CIP does a very good job of maintaining high standards over those utilities they govern over in the US. While the systems in the Ukraine were actually in good condition, the damage they suffered was irreparable in cases and is still not repaired. When these things break, fixes aren’t easy, and parts can be an issue. And it’s interesting to point out that the systems in Ukraine were actually in very good condition, at a state ours should be in. It’s been said before, but I’ll say it again. Attacks against the system are not a matter of “if” but “when”. We’re not ready for what’s coming next – or for the aftermath.

This analysis offers a valuable framework for attack in which there are important lessons we all need to learn.  Key here is the matter of time, not just timing. The attackers took the time to set things up because they could find the holes within our systems to go looking for the intel they needed. Think on that for a moment. What else could attackers find? How long could they stay hidden for to mine our systems before we discover them? There’s a big lesson in here about data and security I can’t even begin to get into here but will bring up in future.

Attackers used several methods to bring the main station down. First, a spear phishing campaign helped identify targets within IT and Admin. You don’t go for the biggest target. You build a ladder up, making it harder to track you, and making you less obvious while accumulating more valuable credentials and intel for the attack. Phishing has escalated rapidly to the preferred initial attack method of choice because of its success in nabbing victims. Workers at electrical companies in the Ukraine clicked on an email containing a malicious attachment. They were prompted to enable macros in a pop-up box we have all seen, and activated ourselves. The takeaway here is that malicious macros are considered somewhat old-school as a threat, so the attackers pulled something out of their toolbox knowing it wouldn’t be watched for.  Always go where they aren’t looking.

This launched a malicious program, BlackEnergy3, previous varieties of which have infected systems in the US and Europe. This was used to open a backdoor to the attackers. We’ve plenty about backdoors lately, and none of it good. This got the attackers into the corporate networks.

The next challenge was to jump the gap from a segragated network onto the SCADA system. We teach people to build segragated networks. You gotta keep’em separated! But even that wasn’t enough of a deterrent. The attackers used their time wisely. They didn’t go over it, or under it. They went through it using credentials and intel they mined while roaming the other networks for months. How? VPNs or Virtual Private Networks that are supposed to shield traffic being sent online from all the other traffic online, sending it through a virtual tunnel. They had the sign-ons from workers who remotely accessed the SCADA system via secure VPNs.  This is an achilles heel for every company because workers need or want to work remotely, but even VPNs are no silver security bullet.  According to Chris Sistrunk , an ICS/SCADA security specialist with Mandiant, a FireEye company, “Power companies need to reduce the number of people who can use the remote access, and limit the amount of time a person can use the remote access. Companies also need to use two-factor identification, instead of just a user ID and password.” Nobody expected this wrinkle. Again, go where they aren’t looking.

Once inside the SCADA network, the attackers set up the backup power supply or UPS that would leave the operators in the dark as well as the customers. Robert M. Lee, a former cyber warfare operations officer for the US Air Force and is co-founder of Dragos Security, a critical infrastructure security company, described this move as “a giant F* you” to the power companies.

Like many places, the Ukraine power system was made up of different distribution management systems. That in itself could make things harder for attackers but they used the advantage of time and planning. They studied those disparate systems to know how to write the malicious firmware that would be used to overwrite the existing firmware on serial to ethernet converters. I mention these because they were key to this part of the attack. With these converters disabled, the operators had no means to send commands remotely that would close up the breakers once the blackout happened. Per Lee, “Operation-specific malicious firmware updates (in an industrial control setting) has never been done before. From an attack perspective it was just so awesome.” What’s not so awesome is that the same model of converters is also used in the US grid for power distribution.

Just before attacker launched their plan on Dec 23, they deployed one more clever tactic. They disabled the customer call centers using a phone denial of service attack so that customers could not call in and report outages, buying more time for the attackers. This was important because the call centers were how utilities kept track of outages on distribution lines. While not every utility has smart meters, every customer has a phone number and address which are assigned to the sections of line in the model of the system. If five customers call in the utility knows where the outage specifically is. But if the phone system is down then they can’t see where all of the power is out. Lee cites again the high level of sophistication and planning in this operation.”To me what makes sophistication is logistics and planning and operations and … what’s going on during the length of it. And this was highly sophisticated.” You can bet they weren’t looking at phone systems being brought down. Go where they aren’t looking.

Another hallmark of this attack was the amount of damage. Firmware, the special instructions on a device that tell it how to operate, was overwritten on the converters and the only fix was to physically replace the converters. Then, the attackers used KillDisk, malware that wiped the files from the operator stations, and then made the stations unrecoverable. It overwrites a key component, the master boot record, so the system cannot reboot.

What should we be doing to prepare our systems for what is coming? Chris Sistrunk has some solid recommendation based on his experience in the field.  “They should work on monitoring their networks, compiling or “ logging” the data, and looking for signs that they have been infiltrated.” Within the security community, we cannot emphasize enough the importance of keeping logs to track system events so that these can be monitored real time, but also as an invaluable record should something go wrong. 

 Robust log collection and network traffic monitoring are the foundational components of a defensible ICS [industrial control systems] network. Failure to perform these essential security functions prevents timely detection, pre-emptive response, and accurate incident investigation.

It’s important to note here that the Ukrainians had done an excellent job of keeping those logs, possibly better than we do and certainly something we should emulate. He also recommends that “Distribution companies should also review their industrial control system computer architecture regularly, and review and test their plans for responding to a cyber attack.”

While the clear choice for culprit here would appear to be Putin and Russia, no formal allegations were made.  But there was no mistaking the targeted and aggressive nature of this attack. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is just one of several currently playing out in the global theatre. And what this attack heralds is a new  strategy in  “conflict resolution.” While we may perceive our biggest threat to be the large established powers who bend the rules, let me reiterate the need to look beyond the expected, to those emerging forces who recognize no rules but their own.

In the end, it isn’t so much about who did it as what was done and fixing the problem. Ukraine asked the US to lend its experience and resources to help fix the damage and analyze what happened. Two months down the line, systems are still offline and unrepaired because of the extent of the attack.  There is a big lesson here for us.  While NERC CIP ensures those utilities it watches over maintain stringent standards that will help safeguard them against these kinds of tactics, there are other private transmission companies and smaller distribution utilities that don’t fall under this umbrella, and who don’t employ effective security measures like 2 factor authentication for sign on. Clearly we’ve got work to do. This attack reveals key areas of exposure to those major systems fundamental to our way of life. Will we heed the warning?

References:

http://www.wired.com/2016/03/inside-cunning-unprecedented-hack-ukraines-power-grid/

http://www.wired.com/2016/01/everything-we-know-about-ukraines-power-plant-hack/

http://www.archerenergysolutions.com/keys-to-ukraine-power-hack-will-unlock-same-doors-in-u-s/

https://www.fireeye.com/content/dam/fireeye-www/global/en/solutions/pdfs/fe-cyber-attacks-ukrainian-grid.pdf

http://ics.sans.org/blog/2016/01/01/potential-sample-of-malware-from-the-ukrainian-cyber-attack-uncovered

Where’s Putin?

It’s been 8 days now.  And one of the most dangerous men in the world today is MIA.  If his henchmen know, they aren’t telling. And you can bet he hasn’t gone fishing.

Of late, Putin has been busy laying siege to Donetsk and the beleagured citizens of Ukraine. When he hasn’t been contracting out hits on his chief political opponents, like Boris Nemtsov. It’s been a while since I sharpened my verbal claws at Putin’s expense, but the sad truth is, things haven’t changed. He’s only proved out my initial allegations.

So where’s Putin? The rumour mills are rife. Let’s dispell some of those better ones, shall we? I don’t think he’s gone to Switzerland for the birth of his love-child.  Nor do I think the Orthodox Russian Church has staged a coup.  And no, he has not been abducted by aliens. I’m more inclined to agree with the recent New York Post article that says Putin ‘disappeared on purpose to distract everyone from the problems and economic pressures piling up around them.’

But something is definitely up.  Per the New York Post article, at least two news articles have had the dates doctored to make it seem like Putin was there when he wasn’t. This wouldn’t be the first time that Putin has pulled a disappearing act when there was turmoil:  2000 when the Kursk submarine sank and in 2002 when hundreds of theatre goers were held captive by terrorists in Moscow. He’s got a lot of unsavoury stuff on his plate right now, including a worsening economic situation.

But he also, clearly, has an agenda, and he’s been able to follow it almost unimpeded, save for ineffective economic sanctions and a lot of huffing and puffing by international figures.  My guess is that he’s pulled away to regroup and reassess.  He is still the chessmaster, adept at concealing his true intent and next move. He is setting something up now. And he needs to be ready by Monday to keep the world in order. It could be a very clever ploy to get someone to overstep their bounds into his territory, giving him the cause he wants to engage. As I have always cautioned with Putin, never underestimate him.  We really don’t know what he is going to do, and that’s how he wants it.

Maybe CNN’s Sunday team will have a fresh spin on the scuttlebutt. But if Putin doesn’t want to be found until he’s ready to come out, we’ll just be hearing replays of what’s already out there. Watch, wait, and be ready for anything.

Thanks for reading!

Cheryl Biswas

Putin’s games, Putin’s rules

We should have known it was coming because of Sochi.  Really, could there have been a more effective precursor to the siege of Ukraine than that monument to Putin’s ego: the Sochi Olympics? The games were a blatant, audacious assertion to the world that Putin answered to no one; that on Russian soil, international regulations and laws did not apply.

Fast forward 6 months. Putin has made it abundantly clear that international regulations and laws do not apply to him. As he made his play for Crimea, the world watched, choosing to believe he wouldn’t do it. But he did. When Malaysian Airlines flight 17 went down over a disputed border region in Ukraine, there was little question that Russian rebel forces in the region had been armed with and fired the weapon that downed the civilian airliner. The area was engaged in active warfare, which made investigation of the crash site and recovery of the bodies both dangerous and difficult. Putin, however, elevated it to a whole new level of hell. Because he could.

Sanctions and strong words have accomplished nothing, not even saving face for those global powers who feel they have no better recourse.  As the saying goes, actions speak louder than words and Putin has sent a clear message hard on the heels of hard sanctions: I don’t need you. Putin really does not care if the world hates him.

Chess master Garry Kasparov called Putin “the most dangerous man in the world.”  In his recent interview with Yahoo News and Finance Anchor Bianna Golodryga, Kasparov went on to say he regarded Putin as a greater threat than ISIS/ISIL, which was only serving to distract the world. I’m with Kasparov on his views of Putin, but ISIS is an immediate threat, not a distraction, and I’ll give them their own blog post later. I think the value in what Kasparov has to say is found in asserting how late everyone was to respond in any meaningful way to Putin’s aggression. Too little, too late is the term that keeps coming up. Sanctions are of limited effectiveness, and the damage they inflict on Russia will in turn be inflicted on the global economy and those European nations who rely on the gas shipped through the pipelines. Given events over the past year, since Sochi, we have good reason to believe that Putin believes western governments “will blink… they will capitulate.” Kasparov may be very accurate in his assertion that Putin “is calling the world’s bluff. He is playing poker while everyone else is playing chess.”

That’s why at this rate, we cannot expect to win. Not when Putin calls the game, then makes the rules. The danger with Putin isn’t what we can see but what we can’t. So the question becomes: why haven’t we changed our play book, or better yet thrown it out?   In Putin’s quest to reclaim what isn’t his, he is banking on us to follow the rules of conventional warfare and to govern our actions according to the tenets of good statesmanship. We have all but handed him the upper hand.

I think it’s time to pull out another manual, entitled “Desperate Times Desperate Measures.” This one is filled with what Putin won’t see coming. It will be ugly, painful, and harsh. Which pretty much defines war and other acts of aggression. And it is in a language Putin will understand very clearly. As will the Russian people he controls. Maybe that’s the real name of the game: control. His to wield, his to lose. And ours to pull out from beneath him by inciting dissent and chaos from within. Much like Putin has already done in Ukraine.

Everyone has their weakness, their breaking point. Even Putin. We just haven’t found his … yet.

Will Putin Pay the Price?

For all the violence and conflict currently ongoing, the world agrees on one thing: Putin is responsible for shooting down the Malaysian airliner over Ukraine.  And the world is right. Russian rebels are holding the crash site under their control, limiting access, and clearing bodies and wreckage. Their action is tantamount to a signed confession of their guilt and Putin’s complicity. By now we know that Putin has been establishing, training and supplying the Pro-Russian rebel forces in Ukraine. The hotbeds, like Donetsk, he has seeded and set off.  Tonight’s think-tank on CNN all echoed the same sentiment: Putin is responsible but he will deny any responsibility, as he has done with everything.  Everything is a shell game – he is masterful at saying one thing, but doing another. Putin went on live television to declare that there must be cooperation at the crash site, so that international bodies could go in and do their work unimpeded, that every effort must be made to assist them in that process. The rhetoric was exactly what Putin was supposed to say. He didn’t mean a word of it. Putin feels nothing for those lives lost, those families consumed by grief. Compassion, sorrow, remorse – these are feelings he is not troubled by. Putin is only sorry that this happened because it has the potential to bring him down.  We’ve watched him make his moves very carefully, exercising his full control. But his men in Donetsk made a mistake, a very costly and unforgiveable mistake ,when they shot down a civilian aircraft thinking it was another military target, like the others they had brought down over the past couple of months. The world won’t excuse what they did, and neither will Putin. Some of them will pay with their lives. But what about Putin? All talk has been about economic sanctions. Turn those financial screws even tighter. But really, what has that accomplished? Putin annexed Crimea as he denied he did it; Putin sowed the seeds of insurrection across Ukraine; and now, Putin has men shooting aircraft out of the sky.  He won’t stop until someone actually stops him. Short-term financial hardship, borne on the backs of his countrymen, seems an easy price to pay as he slowly amasses control over the region.  He’s friends with China, with whom Russia shares its dislike of the West. Economic sanctions have done nothing to derail Putin’s progress. Something more needs to happen now that the world spotlight is on him and Putin is scrambling to rework his endgame.  He has made it abundantly clear that he will not change and therefore remains a growing threat to world security. Putin thinks he knows the rules better than the rest of the world, and that he can play by his own. Up to now, that’s because we’ve let him. But if Putin can change the rules to suit his purposes, why can’t everyone else? Maybe it’s time for the United Nations, the EU, a consortium of nations united in one common cause for a brief moment: remove Putin from the international equation.  It could start at the crash site, where Putin has full authority over the rebels but has done nothing to allow a proper investigation to take place. For the bodies of those victims and their families, this is a travesty of justice.  It’s time to call his bluff.  

Death on Putin’s doorstep

Like everyone, my thoughts and prayers are with the families and loved ones of all who perished on that Malaysian airliner earlier today. This may sound rhetorical, but truly it was a horrific and needlessly tragic event. Nothing will bring back those lost lives.  I’m sure Vladimir Putin is just as sorry for those deaths, although not in the way we think.

As tensions skyrocketed in Gaza this week, and the world’s eye turned toward the Middle East, Putin was ratcheting up his on-going war with Ukraine. There’s no question that Putin is behind what is going on in the Ukraine. We’ve been watching the chessmaster move his pieces into place over months, fomenting unrest and instability in border regions as he annexed Crimea. Putin works best in the shadows and with the world’s attention diverted to Gaza, Putin must have thought that he would have the opportunity to more actively engage in his quest for the Ukraine. Somehow, he didn’t factor in what happened today.

There was nothing to be gained by his pro-Russian militant forces shooting a civilian airliner out of the sky.  There would be no finger-pointing at the Ukrainian military. Now both sides are denying responsibility. However, Donetsk is a militant stronghold and that missile may as well have had Putin’s prints all over it. The spotlight is back on the region, brighter and harsher than ever. Whether he wants to be or not, Putin will be held accountable for those 295 lives.  This is a step back he didn’t expect. And a wake-up call for the rest of us. Putin’s games are far from over, and they are very deadly.

As a side note, I’d like to hope nobody else has plans to fly over closed airspace in a region that is clearly engaging in hostile tactics, and has been for some time. I don’t know why any civilian airliner was authorized or directed to fly anywhere near that region. No diversion could have been nearly as costly as the lives lost due to this flight plan.

When Will the Gloves Come Off?

There has been a steady stream of complaints regarding the failure to act on the part of President Obama. I happen to think Barack Obama is a gifted speaker, a brilliant man, and capable of achieving great things for the country he loves. Unlike other statesmen, who dazzle us with personality and panache, President Obama isn’t in it for the glory. He has a job to do, and he has to work with and work around a great many people and forces.  What I have always admired about him as leader is that he carefully considers his actions, regardless of what the press or even the people may say.  Fools rush in.  The world is very fortunate that the man at the helm of the most powerful nation in the world is no fool.

On Wednesday, President Obama delivered his address on US – European relations. It served as an eloquent declaration of action to both Putin and the world.  I was fortunate enough to hear the speech delivered live. If you missed it, here is a link to the full transcript in the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/transcript-president-obama-gives-speech-addressing-europe-russia-on-march-26/2014/03/26/07ae80ae-b503-11e3-b899-20667de76985_story.html.

The speech begins with an easy but relevant history of how the ideals of democracy were born in Europe and carried to America and around the world. Then, the spectre of Putin’s aggression is first addressed.
“But those ideals have also been tested, here in Europe and around the world. Those ideals have often been threatened by an older, more traditional view of power. This alternative vision argues that ordinary men and women are too small-minded to govern their own affairs, that order and progress can only come when individuals surrender their rights to an all-powerful sovereign.”

He goes on to describe the formation of NATO by the alliance of America with Europe “to reject the darker forces of the past and build a new architecture of peace,” and how this stood in stark contrast to the oppressive control wielded by the Soviet Union. A subtle prelude to what he will say regarding Putin.

He then delivers a rousing acknowledgement of how many nations achieved democracy and freedom across the twentieth century, reminding the audience that this generation knows an unprecedented level of freedom and prosperity. Then, he sounds the first warning bell:
“So I come here today to insist that we must never take for granted the progress that has been won here in Europe and advanced around the world, because the contest of ideas continues for your generation. And that’s what’s at stake in Ukraine today. Russia’s leadership is challenging truths that only a few weeks ago seemed self-evident, that in the 21st century, the borders of Europe cannot be redrawn with force, that international law matters, that people and nations can make their own decisions about their future.”

He states directly that the US will not be complacent, that the US believes in the freedom of nations, democracy and human dignity. He reminds the audience of the United Nations, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and international law, and how we must all work together to enforce them.  He accuses Russia of violating international law and stresses the action against the Ukraine must be met with condemnation.  He establishes how Russia has been isolated politically, suspended from the G-8 group of nations, and has been penalized with sanctions. And then how the Ukraine will be offered major financial aid packages and other supports.

The take-away line of the speech was this:  “this is not another cold war that we’re entering into.” President Obama is careful to establish history will not be repeating itself. There won’t be a division of nations along those lines again. And then he draws the line in the sand stating:
“What we will do always is uphold our solemn obligation, our Article 5 duty, to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our allies. And in that promise we will never waver. NATO nations never stand alone.

To back this up, he points out that NATO planes fly the skies in the Baltics and that they have reinforced their presence in Poland. And that they will do more. However he doesn’t say what. Rather, he calls upon NATO members to step and do more.

So what does that mean for Ukraine? I think this statement sums it up:
“Of course Ukraine is not a member of NATO, in part because of its close and complex history with Russia. Nor will Russia be dislodged from Crimea or deterred from further escalation by military force.”

Mr. Obama knows, as we all should, that the crisis in the Ukraine will not be resolved by foreign parties marching in. And, as has become apparent, Putin does not care about sanctions or being part of any international collective other than his own. So, as the speech moves to its end, Mr. Obama tries a different tact, and like a parent to their wayward child, appeals to Russia to rejoin them, that the world is a stronger, better place with Russia working alongside them.  The speech then finishes with more wonderfully worded encouragement and defence of ideals we all hold dear.

If this were a war of words, then hands down the US would have won. Unfortunately, it isn’t, and Putin has not been deterred by what anyone has had to say. For him, this game has only begun, and he will not back down. President Obama should be ready to toss those gloves off and to make good on his commitment to defend fellow NATO nations.

Afghanistan and A Study in Fledgling Democracies

 

Last week, the final members of our valiant Canadian troops left Afghanistan and returned home. Let me take this opportunity to thank each and every one of them, and to wish them all success and happiness in the days ahead. We can never say thank you enough to these men and women, nor fully appreciate the sacrifices they’ve made. And I’m glad they are now safely back on home soil. So what, then, will become of Afghanistan’s fledgling democracy they fought so hard to bring about?

Last Thursday’s attack in Kabul only serves as a grim indicator of how difficult the road ahead will be. The Taliban doesn’t play by anybody’s rules, not even its own. How do you anticipate the moves of an enemy who has no compunctions about killing or human rights? Like dealing with a rabid animal, dealing with the Taliban often leaves only one recourse – kill them before they kill you. I think it’s safe to say there can never be any level of diplomatic negotiating with the Taliban.

As per the Toronto Star, a group of more than 50 reporters based in Afghanistan  effected a fifteen day boycott, refusing to write anything about the Taliban, in protest of this horrific act of violence. Would there be justice? For what it’s worth, the four armed teens who managed to get into a five-star hotel were killed. But only after several hours, and the loss of nine other lives.  While depriving the Taliban of publicity won’t discourage their bloodlust, it was the only immediate course of action that could be taken. And it sent a message to the world: Afghanistan was a long way from being able to effectively police and protect itself.

Modern history is pock-marked with examples of fledgling democracies that have failed. Outside forces come in, repress the insurgents, oust the tyrant, implant new systems that meet with their standards, then leave. Dare we call it a formula for failure? Democracy isn’t something that can just be erected and left standing. It isn’t a scaffolding to hold up the intents and ideals of outside interests. America’s failed efforts in to install democracy in Vietnam following the French withdrawal in 1954 and then the Vietnam war have become the defacto guide on how not to conduct foreign policy. Democracy is a process, born of necessity. It must come from within the people it serves, and override existing fear and corruption to take hold effectively.

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, we can see what happens when the leap to democracy is too soon. These are nations where terrorism and corruption have been endemic.  Iraq.  Tunisia.  Egypt. Libya. Syria. So many people wanted freedom from the existing regime, but their will wasn’t enough to propel them through the pain of change: upheaval, violence, economic downturns. Nor was it enough to go up against the full strength of the existing regime. Or those that followed in its place. Democracy needs time, and it needs to be cultivated carefully.

Which leads us to the crisis in the Ukraine, a fledgling democracy that has succumbed to corruption and weak leadership under Yanukovitch, and is now being preyed upon by the very country that had relinquished it. The fate of Afghanistan does not lie in the hands that once defended it but rather in the hearts and minds of its people; they must wrest control from their oppressors, the Taliban and the warlords, and overcome a culture ruled by terror and corruption.

 

First Crimea, then the World

Well, that’s how the political pundits are making it sound. Personally, I don’t give anyone that much credit, not even Vladimir Putin. Yes, he got Crimea.  Really. What did you think was going to happen? Sorry, but I am not surprised at all by the outcome of the Crimean referendum.  No doubt ballots were tampered with and much was rigged, but that is how it’s done in Russia, old school or new. And you can bet that Putin is going to leverage this win as he gets ready to make his next move. Considerate oligarch that he is, he’s given the world a little breathing room. He won’t take any action until March 21st. So the question is: what happens next?

Let’s start with this. What does Putin know that the rest of the world seems to be missing? You can call him crazy, and a selection of other unsavoury adjectives, but the fact is he has been playing this game to win, and so far he hasn’t stumbled. All the rhetoric the West can throw at him, all the Presidential late night phone calls and warnings have not deterred him. Infact, they have only strengthened his resolve. He is no friend to the West. He doesn’t think he has to be. Nor does Putin feel tied to Europe or North America for any strategic purposes. And as it stands, the sanctions recently imposed as punishment for Putin’s actions only affect certain political figures. Did somebody forget that lesson on paper tigers in history class?

Putin is playing to his strengths. He knows he has to. The Soviet Union is gone: Russia is ringed by former states it once controlled that are now part of NATO. And as allies go, Syria and Iran can hardly count. But there was no mistaking the confidence in his tone when Putin addressed his parliament this morning, sending a message to the rest of the world he knew would be watching. He called the US as guilty of disseminating propaganda as he was. Putin is posturing, making a show of strength now to make the most of his win. He needs to shore up the allegiance of Russians, so to further his argument that he truly is their protector.  Since he can control the media within Russia, he has done so. Freedom of speech never existed before the fall of the Wall, and it’s dubious to what extent it has been allowed to existed under Putin. The message is the same as it has always been: the West is not our friend, not to be trusted, not to be believed.

What cards does Putin hold in his hand? We know he has control over the pipelines and gas supplies feeding into the Ukraine and Europe. He has been considered the force that will influence Syria, since no Western powers can. He understands the rivalry between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians enough to have wrested Crimea. And, he has the military and nuclear capability to respond to any military intervention. But it’s the cards we can’t see that we should worry most about, if indeed Putin has that proverbial ace up his sleeve.

My Call on Crimea

The referendum is tomorrow. At least, for those of us lucky enough to live in North America the results are still long hours away. But the day of reckoning has dawned for those on the other side of the globe. I don’t want to see human suffering or war; I hope that I am wrong. But given all the facts, and my years of experience living through M.A.D. and the arms race, I have a marked understanding of Russia as the Soviet Union it once was; old habits die hard.

Putin knows he cannot go after the whole deck, not in this particular game of cards. He also realizes that time has marched on; there will never be another Soviet Union, not like what was. I will not compliment Putin and credit him with being visionary, but he does have a clear vision of what he wants near-term and for the future. He wants Russia to be more powerful, to have greater control regionally, and to send a clear message to the western alliances on his doorstep that not everything is theirs for the taking.

Putin made his move into Crimea and the Ukraine knowing that the rest of the world would not risk global warfare, or warfare at any level, to intercede. Thus far, no one has called his bluff. With tens of thousands of Russian troops and military equipment strategically located in Crimea and into the Ukraine, Putin is now readying himself for the aftermath of tomorrow’s referendum. He knows that as soon as an outcome is determined, pro and anti Russian forces will be unable to contain themselves and the rift he has nurtured will explode into violence. Nobody wants that to happen, but then history is full of civil wars that nobody wanted to have happen.

The rest of the world will watch as the votes are counted, offering up more heavily-worded rhetoric and talks of sanctions and other diplomatic measures in place of the action they cannot risk taking. And when the results are announced, everyone but Putin will feel powerless when violence erupts. It will erupt because the outcome of the referendum has already been decided in favour of Russia. We all know the votes are rigged and the process inherently tampered and tainted.

And Putin, an avowed advocate of old-school and hard-line policies, will deal with the problem as the Soviet Union would have done: absolute control, swift and hard. His troops will move in, overwhelming what comparatively meagre strength the Ukraine has, and take decisive action against the protestors. His forces will quash any resistance early on, because after going to all this trouble, Putin does not want these assets damaged any further. He knows that there will be no other military actions launched against him – effectively this crisis is a stalemate. Putin will vehemently defend his actions in the name of protecting those Russian-speaking citizens and interests he has sworn to protect. But the world will know it for what it is: Putin taking back what he believes is his as he takes control.

Do We Call His Bluff

Condemnations. Threats of sanctions. Expulsions of soldiers from formerly friendly nations. The level of tension keeps ratcheting up, but Putin is not backing down. His endgame, at this time, appears to be the annexation of Crimea and the retention, if not full control, of the Ukraine. There is no mistaking his intent, nor his determination to carry out his plan to its end. And no one, not President Obama, not Chancellor Merkel, has deterred him. Putin made the move he did because he could: the timing was right. For all the posturing and threats made by the west, a military intervention isn’t going to happen because the costs outweigh the benefits.

Hands up if you got to watch Fareed Zakaria GPS Sunday morning on CNN. He had a panel of experts weigh in. As per Stephen Kofkin, Director of Programs in Russian Studies at Princeton, “Ukraine is a basket-case… the EU was bluffing, going towards the Ukraine for something to do.” His theory is that the EU just isn’t that into the Ukraine to follow through with its offers, especially not with the unwanted baggage the Ukraine will bring. Professor Stephen Cohen, Professor Emeritus of Russian Studies at NYU and Princeton, made the somber observation that “we are two steps away from a Cuban Missile Crisis.”  He stated, quite astutely, that we weren’t listening to the Russians. In our eagerness to make Putin hear our threats, we weren’t hearing all that he had to say. And we need to know just what it is he wants to effectively determine how far he’ll go to get it.

This conflict isn’t about America’s political weakness. It’s about Russia’s. With the fall of the Wall post-1990, Russia has watched the west steadily move in, encroaching on its borders as new Nato allies form from the post-Soviet satellite states. Putin’s over-arching goal has been to restore Russia to her former strength, but he can never rebuild what was once the Soviet Union. For now, the most he can hope to win are Crimea and the Ukraine. From his vantage point, he sees no reason to fear or negotiate with President Obama because his present and future interests are not tied to America. But for all Putin’s defiance, Russia cannot go it alone. Over the past twenty years, the Russian economy has had to become linked to the world economy, and there are tenuous relationships in play with China. The world has changed, the rules have changed, and in order to keep what he had and go forward, Putin will need whatever alliances he has.