Welcome to the reboot

It’s been a minute. So much has happened, so much has changed, and it isn’t slowing down. I wanted to capture what I see going on, where I think it’s headed, why it matters and use historical context to connect those dots. Because history repeats. And because we humans have a bad habit of not learning the lessons. Welcome to the intersection of geopolitics, security, economics and environmental issues where the synergy of multiple factors influences outcomes.

Like it’s done to so many, 2022 used up my reserves and I’ve been running on empty. Our collective mental health has taken a beating. So let me state this clearly:

your health matters most.

When I hit that wall – hard- in July, I told my boss I was in crisis and needed August off. Use my PTO, unpaid leave, just give me the time to step away and heal. I know I’m lucky to have had time to use. That I could afford it. I also knew August wasn’t going to miss me at work and I put things in order before I left. The takeaway here is that rest is powerful medicine, especially when you have people you love close by, and some tranquil natural surroundings to soothe the psyche. We all need to recharge, and it is good to press “pause”. Ideally sooner rather than later.

And on that encouraging note, I end with this grim observation. Buckle up. We’re in for a rough ride ahead.

Shipping, Shortages & China …

Financial Post article Feb 2 2021

After 2020, nothing is surprising. But it is disturbing. Due to the way container shipments are being managed, food isn’t going where it should be. That’s never good. Especially not during a pandemic that keeps extending. And at the heart of this dilemma is – China. Shipping containers are being sent back empty to China, who is paying a premium for them to arrive empty. Why?

China operates from aggressive 5 year plans, and are extremely competitive with the west ie must win at any cost. China’s economy is recovering from the pandemic which, as they likely see things, gives them the lead as they ramp up their exports. It’s kinda hard to export stuff without something to send it in. China is taking all those containers for its goods, which leaves the rest of the world with stockpiles and problems mounting.

Unfortunate and unforeseen circumstance? That would be a giant nope burger from my stance. China’s engagement in overt cyber espionage practices the past 12 months speaks volumes. So too does their overt aggression toward Taiwan and handling of Hong Kong. They want all the marbles. China plays the long game better than anyone and positioning themselves in a place to benefit at the cost of others is part of their playbook for ultimate superiority over their long-perceived adversary, the west. We need to be watching closely, and asking always: what is the bigger picture?

Never forget. Never again.

Pandemic-monium

Welcome to the 5,326th day of the Covid-19 pandemic. At least that is how it feels. What better time to resume writing a blog?

And what better time to learn more about global powers? Nobody saw this coming. That is such a lie. Actually, there were playbooks and scenarios and dire warnings even. Nobody wanted to actually prepare for what was coming is more like it.

Now, three months in, everything has changed. There is no “going back”. We can only go forward into a new normal. And that is hard, because change is hard. People do not do change well and certainly not on a massive global scale. But here we are. Stay at home, work from home. Social distancing as the norm. Contactless society. Because right now there is no cure and no vaccine to protect us.

Three months in, and the world is moving ahead to reopen. For some places, a very few places, the time is right because they got it right early and they flattened the crap out of that curve. New Zealand, New Brunswick, Iceland you go for it!

China is where it started and spread from. We’ll never really know the actual count of infection and mortality there but you can bet they will repress and suppress that curve into submission because they have a massive economy to restore, and the dubious distinction of being the only place on earth making and supplying personal protective equipment. That’s been interesting as desperate countries have had to go hat in hand and ask for PPE. China won’t forget whom they “helped”. We’d better remember that.

Europe. Hard lessons learned at high costs. Small countries, big families, densely populated urban centres. The virus spread like wildfire and the world watched as hospitals and healthcare systems were tragically overwhelmed. This is a respiratory illness and there were no ventilators to be had. We know now what needs to be on hand for next time. And that next time is coming. We also watched the magnificent resiliency of the human spirit play out in nightly overtures from balconies of confinement. Italy and Spain are venturing out of lockdown mode and we’ll see how they manage the inevitable spike that will follow. Germany and Sweden are ahead of the pack and examples of what the new normal can look like.

Not Britain. Boris Johnston has mismanaged that crisis and the mortality rate is the highest anywhere as the curve is still climbing. Thankfully they do know what does work to contain spread and more PPE and ventilators are available. But they have a long road ahead to flatten their curve because trying for herd immunity at the outset was clearly not a good idea. Success has been measured by how fast lockdowns were implemented and how broadly testing and then tracing were done.

Which brings us to the US, and a terrible live experiment unfolding as Trump has placed the American economy above the lives of American citizens even though he needs them alive to vote him back in. The US, held captive in Trump’s megalomaniac whims, has the highest infection rate at over 1.6 million people and over 100,000 deaths. Needless deaths. The curve continues to climb in the US despite Trump’s insistence otherwise, across all the states, managed by separate governments and policies, receiving no federal support. And New York bore the heartbreaking brunt of reported infections and deaths. Images of bodies piled into trucks cannot be erased. While many state leaders want to ease forward cautiously they are being ordered by Trump to “open for business or else”, and there are mass protests of contagion demanding freedom over sensibility. Many places in the US are reopening now and actually going back to what was, heedless of the new rules to stay safe and manage spread. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

And then there are the countries who have neither the infrastructure nor the money to manage this outbreak. Densely populated and with high poverty they cannot keep people safe at home or shut down their economies for long if at all. Brazil, India, Africa, Central America – their ability to manage this will have global impact because of spread.

Canada has managed better than many, thanks to healthcare and a government that spends money on its people because it can. Our population is spread out, and we are inclined to be respectful and careful. And we closed the border. But that does not undo the harm we did to our seniors and the tragic, horrible death toll in our long term care facilities. We needed to respond sooner, identify and control better.

But like everyone else, Canada is slowly moving forward, because our economies cannot stay shutdown much longer. We all need to be preparing for the subsequent infections we know are coming. As I said before, there is no going back to what was. We have to do things differently for the next year at least, until there is a vaccine and testing is widely available. As we move forward into a new normal, transit, school, travel and work will all be different to help maintain distance and reduce spread. Because we have all just paid an enormous one-time only cost to try and flatten that curve.

Oh No They Didn’t …

Oh yes. They did.

The court has granted a stay. So Doug Ford ( I cannot bring myself to refer to him as Premier) gets his way. The Not Withstanding clause is now trivialized to something serving Doug Ford, to make the Ontario he wants to have. Not one for the people who have to live with it.

Have we not been watching the theatrics unfold south of the border? Did we not already experience being a global butt of the joke as Ford Nation?

Fair warning. Don’t underestimate this Ford. He is going after the deck and made his move because he knew we weren’t looking. He is not afraid to take risks or go to far because he. Does. Not. Care. Public opinion is irrelevant.

He plays a mean numbers game though. Which is what the power play for Toronto City Council is all about. Whittling it down to a controllable size and ensuring the outcome will again be in his favour following the upcoming municipal elections.

We’ve only just begun … 😞

A Man of Honor: Remembering Senator John McCain

Photo by SkyNews

He served his country. Honorably.

That is how Senator John McCain wanted to be remembered. As a Canadian, this is how I remember a a man whom many have declared to be a Great American Hero. His influence and legacy extend beyond borders, and he exemplifies how I would like to live my life, and how I would like to teach my children. I love my nation, and all the freedoms and opportunities we enjoy. But for me, the USA represents what patriotism, leadership and commitment can achieve – well beyond just a strong and fearless neighbour next door. The time has never been more right to remember this man and his convictions, to ensure we all recognize that he served something far bigger than his own purpose and ego. Because the world needs these qualities more than ever.

When I think of all I love about America, it is embodied in this man. He served his country with true conviction, suffering incredible torture and choosing to remain with his men when he could have been released. He was grateful, truly grateful for the life he had lived, for the people he knew, and for the support and help he had received. He loved and fully appreciated the rugged majesty of the American landscape as an active outdoorsman.

He was not a politician but a man aware of his own failings who went into politics to serve his country. He was candid about his mistakes and regrets, which is not a quality of politicians but is of great leaders and those who inspire. He was also candid about his beliefs, which often were not those of his party. John McCain was not afraid to say what he meant, and he meant what he said. His honesty and candour, his willingness to own the consequences of his actions, are what set him apart.

Courage of conviction. These were words Senator McCain lived by. He stood up for what was right, spoke out against what he knew to be wrong. Defended those he saw being maligned. In the moment, there are few who will risk reputation and approval to take action. John McCain did not hesitate.

Freedom of the press. He knew and worked with the press in a tremendous relationship that grew over decades. He was open, honest and accessible believing in the importance of freedom of speech and the role it played in this powerful nation. He led by example, shared his insights, and nurtured some of the very best political commentators we have today. And those countries who lack the freedoms we take for granted smother this transparency and openness, then misrepresent their “truths” at large. Senator McCain saw the danger in deceptions playing out, and called out questionable leadership practices, notably with Putin in Helsinki, as he watched the current president shut down these essential channels, effectively shutting down his accountability by shutting out the people.

Senator McCain understood the need to work together and found the way to do that. He valued people, and learned from them, letting their differences help him grow. He requested both ex-presidents Barack Obama and George Bush deliver his eulogy, because he learned from them through their differences, and the respect was mutual. You can read his memoir to see a man who made mistakes and learned from them, who actively made the effort to try and learn what he did no know. There have been astute observations made that he surrounded himself with very capable, well-chosen people. Good leaders enable and equip their people to do what they do best, to encourage success by empowerment and respect. There is no “I” in team, and John McCain worked to build up those around him to ensure the whole was greater than the sum of its parts.

He knew what he was facing when given his diagnosis a year ago, and was open and upfront about the prognosis. He accepted what was to come with grace and dignity, but most importantly with candor and gratitude. There is tremendous courage in his openness at a time of great vulnerability, and again, powerful lessons for all.

We have lost the man but we must not lose his belief in what we can do better, what we can carry forward. Thank you, John McCain, for lighting this torch and leading the way.

Zero Tolerance

He said he didn’t like how it looked or how it felt, so he changed his policy. He did not, however, say sorry.

Trump’s horrendous approach to immigration is unconscionable. There is no justification for what he has authorized, endorsed and enforced.

There should be no forgiveness for what he has done. Infact, to use his own words, there should be zero tolerance for any person who would choose to knowingly harm the most helpless and innocent among us.

Why does this bully and tyrant still hold office? Suffer the children no more.

Cancelled: we saw that coming

Warning: minor rant

Hands up. Who is not surprised that the much-anticipated talks between Trump and Kim, aka the US and North Korea, just got derailed?

And South Korea is apparently blind-sided, trying to figure out what just happened. I like South Korea, and I’m going to leave them out of this. Unfortunately, we’re all going to be impacted by what comes next.  IMHO, Kim played Trump all along. There was never going to be a “let’s be friends” summit.  We’ve had Kim’s number for a long time. Why would we expect otherwise? He has nukes now, and he knows how to use them. He’s not giving those up. Sorry not sorry.

I won’t try to predict the future. Kim is not what we call rational, so good luck trying to analyze what is really going on here.  However, this latest manoeuvre has created distraction and casts doubt on the Trump administration. Which is a win for Kim. I do not believe Kim ever thought of Trump as “honourable”, so setting him up for a fall would actually be part of credible endgame because Kim has consistently sought to undermine the US.

As always, what we should be concerned with is what we don’t know. Deception is an art form in politics, and we need to remember that: what is the overt actually concealing.  Let’s ask again: what’s in this for Kim? What does he stand to lose if things don’t go through? How far is Kim willing to push Trump? What is Kim’s actual endgame? I have a feeling we aren’t going to like what comes next.

 

What to Watch for in 2018 – Foreign Policy

It is that time of year again, when we crystal ball gaze and predict what we believe will happen base

“10 Conflicts to Watch in 2018”  https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/02/10-conflicts-to-watch-in-2018/