Hello to everyone who has been reading my blog. Thank you!! Sorry – long time between posts, but the world doesn’t slow down. And how apropos that I will resume with Putin.
We left off with Putin engaged in a war of words with Western powers, while he was free to pursue his own agenda with the neighbours next door, Crimea and Ukraine. His annexation of Crimea spelled out his intentions for Ukraine. Russia will never let go. And given the volatile split internally within Ukraine, the situation was ripe for Putin. As explained in my earlier posts, Putin saw how to work the existing instability and unrest to his advantage. He is entirely guilty of lighting a match beneath a political powderkeg. He’s been a busy boy, amassing his forces like so many toy soldiers along the strategic Russian/Eastern Ukraine border. Putin knows exactly what he’s doing. So, why has the west taken so long to get on the same page?
Let me reiterate. Putin won’t play by the same rules as Nato, or any Western powers. Evidently, his membership in the UN has little influence on his actions. He has no fear of sanctions or reprisals. His endgame has been fairly evident from the outset: re-establish Russia’s strength and presence, and do so geographically. It is much harder to argue with physical mass, especially when it carries essential supplies like oil and gas pipelines.
I was glad to hear Prime Minister Harper’s strong assertion that Putin’s actions in Ukraine pose a definite threat not just to that country but to the world. I already knew that. So did anyone else reading this blog. The ball is now in play. The next actions taken either by Ukraine or the West will require military confrontation against Putin’s forces. My assessment: Putin is counting on hesitation, and then for the West to call his bluff with a half-hearted standoff. He knows that the West does not an engagement against Russia. This will be a hard sell to nations choking on austerity measures and weary from a decade of war in Afghanistan. Without money and public support, political leaders won’t make this call, especially not in an election year. Which leaves Ukraine ripe for Putin’s picking. With time and geography all on his side, Putin may just have made his checkmate.